The Phans Blog

Bench Geoff Jenkins

2008-04-23T21:43:00.002-05:00

Recently Geoff Jenkins has been on the bench because So Taguchi is Charlie Manuel’s best option in the lead off spot. But who will platoon the Phillies outfield after the return of Shane Victorino? My concern is that Jenkins will return to right field and Jayson Werth will be relegated to the bench. I’m on record as not being a big fan of the Jenkins signing. I thought he would not bat for a high enough average with mediocre power and play atrocious defense. I was right.

AB R HR RBI BB SB AVG OBP SLG
Geoff Jenkins 64 6 1 3 4 0 .250 .294 .359
Jayson Werth 50 9 3 8 8 2 .300 .407 .540

Jayson Werth has outperformed Geoff Jenkins by a wide margin in every single statistical category. In addition Werth’s fielding ability and throwing arm are far better the Jenkins. There is no reason to play Jenkins over Werth. Jayson could easily go 20-20 while hitting close to .300. Jenkins hasn’t played poorly. However, that truth doesn’t change the fact that an objective analyst can’t reasonable believe that Werth is the best option. I only hope that Charlie Manuel comes to this realization sooner rather than later.

Big Props to My Boy Carlos

2008-04-21T22:36:00.004-05:00

I a huge Carlos Ruiz fan. Carlos is a great baseball player. He does everything well. He has a little power, speed, and is a good defensive player. Catchers don't receive nearly enough credit when a team succeeds.

Tonight he had a huge two out hit that broke the game open. It was an absolutely great at bat. With two outs and the bases loaded Ruiz stepped up to the plate. Ball one was a close pitch with lots of movement. On pitch two of the at bat Carlos took the other way and knocked in two runs with a huge double. Now that's how you play the game.

Why is Wes Helms Still a Phillie?

2008-03-17T14:56:00.004-05:00

As I watched Wes Helms take the field after replacing Ryan Howard, I had a flash back to January when the Phllies signed Pedro Feliz. At the time I thought Wes Helms will soon be traded for a bullpen arm or a couple of AA prospects. But its now March and Helms remains a Phillie.

The signing of Feliz appears to have served as motivation for Helms who has stepped up his game this spring. In thirty at bats Helms has hit .300 with a .382 on base percentage. Despite his stellar play the Phillies don’t have room on the roster for Helms, Feliz, and Greg Dobbs. Feliz was signed to start in the hot corner. Dobbs has also had a good spring hitting .286 with a .543 slugging percentage. More importantly Dobbs is the Phillies best option as a left-handed pinch hitter. That leaves Helms out in the cold.

It has been rumored that both the Braves and Marlins have shown interest in Helms. Apparently they haven’t shown much more than interest. If the Phillies can’t move Helms he will have to be placed on waivers and another team will claim him. Unfortunately for the Phillies other GMs know this fact and are willing to wait instead of making a trade.

Breaking Down Eaton’s Spring Start

2008-03-15T13:29:00.002-05:00

The Good:
Eaton struck out two hitters and induced seven ground ball outs. That's an excellent sign. You can't be an effective pitcher in Citizens Bank Park if you give up a lot of fly ball outs. In addition he didn't walk a single batter or give up a single run, which both qualify as good things.

The Bad:
Last year Eaton was consistently able to throw strikes early in the count allowing him to get ahead of hitters. Surprisingly he labored to retire hitters in 0-2 and 1-2 counts. Unfortunately that trend continued in this year. 4 consecutive Twins hitters found themselves down 0-2. Of those four only Chris Redmond got a hit. However, Eaton took far to many pitches to put down those hitters.

I don't know where a pitcher should be with their velocity at this point in spring training but Eaton wasn't throwing hard. Usually Eaton's fastball tops out at 92 MPH. The fastest pitch I saw him throw looked like an 84 MPH two seam fastball. That must improve if Eaton wants to win the final spot in the rotation.

The I Am Confused:
Eaton gave up five hits. However, two of those hits should have been caught. Even if I forget those two hits Eaton still gave up three hits in three innings, which isn't that great either.

One issue was that it appeared Eaton had trouble throwing his curve ball for strikes. Admittedly I sometimes can't tell the difference between a slider and a curve while watching the highly pixilated mlb.tv. But even I could tell that Eaton's accuracy wasn't always there.

In conclusion there is some evidence to support my hope that Eaton will be able to pitch effectively this season. I have always believed that if healthy Eaton could go 14-8 with a 4.35 ERA. Looking forward to the regular season I can’t help but get excite about both the Phillies and Eaton’s prospects.

The Never Ending Search for Pitching

2008-03-14T22:56:00.005-05:00

It’s no secret that the back end of the Phillies rotation is weak. The Phillies are now about half way through spring training and no one has stepped up their game. One dark horse candidate is Francisco Rosario. When watching Rosario pitch last season I often felt like I was having a heart attack. He simply lacks the ability to consistently retire hitters.

There’s no doubt he has electric stuff. Rosario has never had trouble striking hitters out as evidenced by his stellar career strikeout rate of 8.39 K/9. The problem is that Rosario can’t control his pitches. In his career he has given up a shocking 10.58 H/9 and walked and unimaginable 5.29 BB/9. In Rosario’s first two spring starts he gave up no earned runs, but he still surrendered his fair share of hits and walks. In his third start the hits and walks came back to bite him and the Braves slammed him for six runs.

Rosario looks good on paper but he doesn’t have what it takes to be a good pitcher. Unless Rich Dubee can get Rosario straightened out Pat Gillick needs to bite the bullet and cut him.

Deep Cleansing Breathes

2008-02-29T02:06:00.003-05:00

After I heard that Brad Lidge had reinjured his knee I had a minor meltdown. Even after hearing that the surgery was successful and that he could be back in time for opening day I couldn’t really relax. It’s nearly impossible to get well-informed and accurate information about injuries. I have a few complaints regarding the way that the mainstream media covers sports injuries. Often all we hear is what body part is out of whack and the range of how many weeks or months they will be missing. Sometimes we will get a quote from the player that is almost always so ridiculous optimistic that they sound completely crazy.

All of that explains why I was unable to not worry about Brad Lidge. But after reading this great snippet by Stephania Bell, which was completely buried by ESPN I have been able to relax. Stephania’s bio says that she is a physical therapist who is a Board Certified Orthopedic Clinical Specialist and a Certified Strength and Conditioning Specialist. In plain English someone who can actually explain what to expect from Lidge. She explains that because doctors only had to remove a small portion of the medial meniscus it is more likely that Lidge will be striking out Mets hitters with his nasty slider sooner rather than later. So finally I can relax and take a few deep cleansing breathes.

Here is the link to her article. It is sort of hidden on the right side. The main article is a pretty decent Phillies season preview. I should also mention Will Carroll who writes an excellent column about injuries called Under the Knife for Baseball Prospectus.

Lidge Out 3-6 Weeks

2008-02-24T16:14:00.002-05:00

Phillies closer will require surgery on his knee to repair a torn meniscus. The recovery time in three to six weeks and Lidge is optimistic that he will be ready for opening day.

This whole story is very familiar. Last season the Phillies acquired a star pitcher who had a nagging injury that prevented him from pitching effectively during the season. The story of Brad Lidge appears to be mimicking last season’s drama with the infamous Freddy Garcia. Despite the Phillies history I still believe that Lidge will pitch effectively this season.

Lidge injured himself when his spike got caught in the ground, which is just plain unlucky. I can only hope that the Phillies do nothing to rush him back. He needs to be one hundred percent before the Phillies let him on the field. Anything else is just reckless.

Kyle Kendrick Video

2008-02-18T14:43:00.001-05:00

I'm sure everyone has heard about this but I thought I'd post it anyway.

Phils take a look at Benson

2008-02-08T19:54:00.000-05:00

The Phillies who have stated time and time again that finding pitching is still a priority. In their effort to find more starting pitching the Phillies have turned to the bargain bin and free agent Kris Benson. I’m very conflicted about Benson. He has had only two good seasons in his seven-year career. Benson’s strike out rate is trending down and his homerun rate is trending up, which suggest that he is a pitcher whose performance will decline. Even worse he missed both the 2001 and 2007 seasons due to injury.

Despite all that Benson could still provide valuable depth. The Phillies have no fifth starter, Kyle Kendrick is unproven, and Jamie Moyer is older than time itself. For all those reasons it couldn’t hurt to sign Benson and either keep him in the minors or use him as a long man in the bullpen.

Hot Corner Surprise

2008-01-28T17:34:00.000-05:00

In an unexpected move the Phillies have reportedly signed third baseman Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract. Pat Gillick had consistently commented that they Phillies were comfortable platooning third base with Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs. With the addition of Feliz that Phillies have 3 third baseman, which is one to many. Presumably Feliz will start leaving either Dobbs or Helms as the odd man out. My guess is that one of those two will be traded for a bullpen piece sooner rather than later.

I’m hesitant to praise a signing before knowing the value of the contract but if the money is reasonable this is an exciting signing. Last season Feliz hit 20 homeruns. That’s five more than Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez, and Greg Dobbs combined. Pedro will have solid power and play adequate defense. His career .252 average and .288 OBP aren’t great but they still represent an upgrade.

The Phillies have now signed a new starting third basemen for the third straight season. I believe that Pedro Feliz will excel were Nunez and Helms failed.

Lieberthal Retires

2008-01-27T17:11:00.000-05:00

Long time Philadelphia Phillies catcher Mike Lieberthal retired today after fourteen seasons in majors. I wasn’t sad to see Lieby depart last season to the Dodgers but looking over his career statistics has reminded me of the good times. Back in the day Lieberthal was one of the best catchers in baseball. He had several high quality seasons including two All-Star campaigns. He also won a Gold Glove in 1999, which I had totally didn't remember.

I have a lot of respect for catchers. They take more punishment than anyone on the baseball diamond and Mike was no exception. He played 1,212 games in his career and in 1,174 he suited up for the Phillies. He owns the Phillies franchise record for the games played by a catcher and also the most times being hit by a pitch. It’s hard to quantify the value of stability but there’s no doubt that the Phillies were well served by his years of consistently solid play. I wish him look in his life after baseball.

Lidge and Madson avoid arbitration

2008-01-17T21:53:00.000-05:00

The Phillies avoided arbitration with a pair of key relievers signing Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson. Lidge who came over to the Phillies in the Houston deal and Mad Dog will make $6.35 million and $1.4 million respectively. Both are reasonable prices for quality pitchers.

Lidge is a huge pick up. I don’t buy that Albert Pujols permanently messed up Lidge in the 2005 NLCS. That explanation is a junk story for ESPN. If Lidge had psychological issues in Houston it was a product of Phil Garner changing his role in the bullpen. A closer needs to know that they are the man. A closer also needs to know that if they blow a game then they will still be the man tomorrow. Every time Lidge pitched as an Astro last season he had to worry about losing his job. That would cause even the most confident pitcher to lose his cool.

The truth is that Lidge has a blazing fastball paired with a killer slider. Last season he had 11.52 K/9 and 1.25 WHIP. That was a down year for Brad. Between his sick repertoire of pitches and the knowledge that he is the man for better or for worse, Brad Lidge will succeed in Philadelphia.

Thank God Ed Wade is Gone

2008-01-15T14:24:00.000-05:00

This afternoon I sat on my coach watching Congress question baseball big wigs about the steroids. I was surprised to see that the House committee holding the hearings started off the day by requesting the Justice Department to investigate allegations that Miguel Tejada lied to federal agents about his use of steroids.

My first thought was to think of a good friend of mine at school (you know who you are) who is a big Astros fan. As Phillies Phans we can all commiserate with the idea of a team suddenly losing their biggest off-season acquisition. I’m thinking of Freddy Garcia.

But more than that former Phillies GM Ed Wade has already done long term damage to the Astros. He has already gutted the system trading away a ton of prospects including Josh Anderson, Troy Patton, Matt Albers, and Dennis Safate. For some reason he signed Kazuo Matsui to a 3-year contract, which is about two years more than he deserved. He traded for Jose Valverde who averages nearly 4 walks per nine innings over his career. In addition Valverde is a fly ball pitcher who is not well suited for throwing in tiny Minute Maid Park. To top it all off Miguel Tejada may be spending 2008 on trial and not fielding ground balls.

And of course old Ed traded his stud closer Brad Lidge to the Pighten Phils and got very little it return. I am so relieved that Ed Wade is no longer the Phillies GM.

Phils Ink Jason Werth

2008-01-07T19:27:00.000-05:00

The Phillies avoided arbitration with outfielder Jayson Werth signing him to a 1.7 million dollar contract. That’s a great value for a fourth outfielder that can serve Charlie as a solid pinch hitter and defensive replacement in a late inning situation. I’m a big Jayson Werth fan. He has power, speed, and doesn’t hesitate sacrifice his body in pursuit of fly balls. What’s not to like?

I wish that the Phillies would give Werth more at bats. But that’s not going to happen. The Phillies brain trust has decided to give to the well-aged veteran Geoff Jenkins the keys to right field. The Phillies would be better off with the more athletic Jayson Werth in the lineup every day.

Roberson to the Orioles

2008-01-02T17:21:00.000-05:00

Chris Roberson’s tenure with the Phillies came to an abrupt end when his contract was sold to Baltimore Orioles for cash considerations. Roberson once a top prospect in the Phillies farm system has fallen out of favor. Roberson had the best year of his minor league career in 2005 when he won the Paul Owens award. Unfortunately he has struggled recently hitting .266 last season for the Ottawa Senators.

The Phillies simply don’t have room for him. The Phillies already have two reserve outfielders in Jayson Werth and So Taguchi. In addition the Phillies signed free agent Chris Snelling who can come up from the minors in case of an injury.

Chris Roberson will be best remembered most for his contributions to the darkest part of the Phillies 2007 season. During a sunny afternoon against the Braves in Hotlanta, Roberson entered as a defensive replacement without sunglasses. Two catchable balls feel in front of him helping the Braves win the game. I won’t be sad to see Roberson go.

Speed Drain

2007-12-30T23:12:00.000-05:00

In 2007 the Phillies had the best offense in the National League. The Phils had a variety of offensive weapons, none more potent than their ability to steal bases with ease. The Phightens stole 138 bases but more significantly were caught only 19 times. The Phillies pilfered bags more efficiently than any other team in the Majors. With the Phillies roster set it’s a good time to evaluate whether speed will be weapon in Charlie Manuel’s repertoire.

The Phillies have lost several key speedsters from last season’s team. Michael Bourn, Aaron Rowand, Tadihito Iguchi, and Abraham Nunez stole a combined 33 bases last season. The departing base thieves represent nearly a quarter of the Phillies stolen base total form last season. The new Phillies except for So Taguchi won’t be diving into second any time soon. In addition both Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino set career highs for stolen bases. It’s not unreasonable to expect a drop off in production. Hopefully the Phillies offense will be able to compensate for the downshift in velocity.

The Bargain Bin

2007-12-27T07:27:00.000-05:00

One lesson the Phillies painfully learned in 2007 is that 5 starting pitchers are not enough. Besides Brett Myers and Cole Hamels the Phils rotation makes me nervous. Kyle Kendrick stuck out only 49 batters in 129 innings. Unless his strike out rate comes up everything I know about baseball says that Kendrick will have a rocky 2008. Jamie Moyer is old enough to be Kendrick’s dad. Moyer’s track record says he will pitch 200 innings for the fortieth season in a row. However, logic suggests that Moyer will eventually run out of gas and spend time on the disabled list. Presumably the fifth starter will be Adam Eaton. I think Eaton is much better than his atrocious 2007 statistics suggest. If Adam is healthy than he could be a useful piece. Unfortunately I would not be surprised if we hear the news in spring training that he will be getting season ending surgery.

That leaves Pat Gillick looking through the bargain bin searching for starting pitching. One option is Josh Towers. Yes the Josh Towers that was non-tendered by the Blue Jays. But wait, ask yourself if you were Pat Gillick and had a time machine and could go back in time and sign Carlos Silva to a cheap one-year deal would you? Because if you would then take another look at Towers. Lookout Landing has a fantastic post on the remarkable similarities between both hurlers. In terms of swinging strike percentage, home runs allowed, and ground ball rate Silva and Towers are the same pitcher. Gillick might also want to sign Towers because he drafted him when he was the general manager of the Orioles. Josh Towers might be the cure to the Phillies starting pitching woes.

Should the Phillies go after Otsuka?

2007-12-26T00:00:00.000-05:00

As I look over the list of the free agent relievers I am puzzled. Especially given the huge contracts that middle relievers have been signing this off-season. Will someone tell me how Ron Mahay got a two year eight million dollar contract?

The Phillies have certainly improved their bullpen since the end of the 2007 season. Assuming the Phillies carry 12 pitchers they will have 7 spots for relievers. Brad Lidge will be the closer, J.C. Romero will serve as set up man, with Ryan Madson, and Tom Gordon in middle relief. If I had to guess I think the last three spots would go to Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey, and Adam Eaton. That’s a solid group but the Phillies could still improve.

There has been great speculation that the Phillies will try to sign reliever Akinori Otsuka. At first I thought Akinori Otsuka would be a great fit as a middle reliever for the Phillies. Otsuka has a microscopic 2.44 career ERA. However, looking into Otsuka it became clear why he was non-tendered by the Texas Rangers. The first issue is the problem of his health. Otsuka spent a lot of time spent on the disabled list last season. If he’s not healthy there’s no reason to sign him. The second reason for concern is his statistics. Each season he has spent in the Majors his strike out rate have gone down and his walk rates vacillated up and down. That’s not good. If healthy and if the Phillies sign him to a one-year contract for a reasonable price then it could be totally worth it.

Bench Talk

2007-12-25T12:38:00.000-05:00

In 2007 the Phillies opening day bench consisted of Abraham Nunez, Greg Dobbs, Michael Bourn, Jayson Werth, and Rod Barajas. With the signing of So Taguchi the Phillies 2008 bench has been set. Eric Bruntlett, So Taguchi, and Chris Coste will take the place of Abraham Nunez, Michael Bourn, and Rod Barajas respectively. These three roster moves mark a huge upgrade to the Phillies bench.

Eric Bruntlett who came over in the Brad Lidge trade is a much better hitter than Abraham Nunez. Bruntlett is a strong defensive player. He has almost no power and hits for a mediocre average but can steal a few bases and will take pitches. So Taguchi is an experienced veteran. He doesn’t have as much raw talent as Michael Bourn but he is an excellent pinch hitter and won’t make any of the rookie mistakes that Bourn made last season. Chris Coste is a good baseball player and Rod Barajas is not. By my count Barajas cost the Phillies 3 wins all by himself.

A strong bench is essential ingredient for any good baseball team. It is unlikely that a baseball team will make it through a whole season without having a position player spend some time on the disabled list. It is a tremendous asset for a team to be able to plug in another player. Having strong pinch hitters and defensive replacements gives Charlie Manuel more weapons late in games.

Phillies Agree to Terms with Jenkins

2007-12-20T13:43:00.000-05:00

In the past few seasons Charlie Manuel has chosen to platoon several positions with mixed results. In 2005 Kenny Lofton and Jason Michaels split time in center field and last season third base responsibilities were split three ways between Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez, and Greg Dobbs. To fill the void after the departure of Aaron Rowand the Phillies will move Shane Victorino to center field. The Phillies now plan to platoon right field using Geoff Jenkins against righties and use Jason Werth against lefties.

I don’t think this is a good move for the Phillies. Geoff Jenkins is the very definition of a player in decline. His on base percentage is going down and his strikeouts are going up. Jenkins will hit for a bad average and reasonable power. The Phillies don’t need another left handed hitter like Jenkins who can’t get on base. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are both switch hitters. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Greg Dobbs are all left-handed. Geoff Jenkins isn’t anything special.

I’m a big believer in Jason Werth. Werth can hit for power, steal some bases, and unlike Jenkins will take pitches. In addition he has good defensive range and has a strong arm. The Orioles originally drafted Werth in the first round but he had his career derailed by injuries. The Phillies should give him an opportunity to play. When Victorino went on the disabled list Jason Werth stepped in and played very well. Why not let him play?

Don’t sign Rowand

2007-11-15T18:00:00.001-05:00

I have come out of my long period of blogging hibernation to send a simple message to Pat Gillick. Bringing back Aaron Rowand would be a terrible mistake. Don’t get me wrong I am a huge fan of Rowand. After “The Catch” how could you not be?

However, I have a few points to make. First Rowand’s last season was a classic career year for a player in the final year of his contract. According to reports Rowand who is 30 wants at least a five-year deal. 30 years of age is about the time a player’s production starts to decline. I don’t believe Rowand will experience a precipitous drop in his offensive output next season. But, my baseball intuition tells me by the end of his contract Rowand will be a huge burden. I’m thinking of Pat Burrell here.

In addition there is reason to believe that Rowand’s golden glove may turn to wood. I can practically hear Phillie Phans yelling at their screens but stay with me for a second. In years past Rowand has played a first rate center field and he certainly deserved his first Gold Glove award. Despite his record of stellar play, age again dictates the end of the status quo for Rowand. Aaron has never had a good arm or good speed. His success as a center fielder is a product of his ability to read balls with ease and his willingness to sacrifice his body. At 34 and 35 Rowand’s average speed will have become sub-par and his lack of arm strength will be become woefully obvious.

Finally the Phillies led the league in runs by a large margin the past two seasons. Therefore they can afford a slight decrease in their offensive stats that would accompany the departure of Rowand. It would also give Pat Gillick the flexibility to bring in another quality starter.

Source:
Picture from 6abc.com

2007 NL East Champions

2007-09-30T19:33:00.000-05:00

After 13 years of frustration the Phillies will return to the playoffs. The Phillies are the 2007 National League East Division Champions. I would also like to take the time to thank the Mets for showing their true colors and falling apart. Congratulations to the Phils.

Seriously Jose Mesa?

2007-06-09T11:55:00.000-05:00

We can all agree that the Phillies need another reliable arm in the bullpen. But seriously all Pat Gillick could get was Jose Mesa? If this report is true then I am 100% dead set against it. In the twilight of his career Mesa’s WHIP, ERA, B/9 have trended up, and his K/9 have trended down. On top of each one of his indicator statistics moving in the wrong direction Mesa despite being the Phillies all time saves leader had trouble handling the pressure.

Pat Gillick should have been able to sign Troy Percival. I think Percival has a reasonable chance at a comeback. Percival is reportedly signing a minor league deal with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Phillies should have offered a juicy enough contract to get Percival onto the Phillies. I would rather the Phillies have taken a chance on a minor leaguer than sign an unreliable pitcher like our old friend Jose.

Source:
Report: Phillies Sign Mesa
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Jose Mesa from bradygee.com

Run forest run!

2007-05-29T00:59:00.000-05:00

In the bottom of the ninth a glimmer of hope peaked out after Greg Dobb's clutch three-run home run. Pat Burrell stepped to the plate and smashed a single. Burrell was then replaced by pinch runner Michael Bourn. Bourn is a burner. His speed is supposed to allow him to score easier than the average player. What happened next explained why speed isn't everything. Carlos Ruiz hit a ground ball through Conor Jackson's legs. Michael Bourn put the pedal to the metal but while passing second base he turned his head to check on the ball. Bourn's slight head tilt prevented him from advancing beyond third.

A few weeks ago a friend asked me "What does the third base coach do". It might have behooved Michael Bourn to hear my answer. Steve Smith (Phillies Third Base Coach) should have been waving his hands indicating for Bourn to keep running on towards home. Bourn never should have turned around to check on the ball. He should have been focused on Smith. If he had crossed home plate he would have tied the score at five and the game would have gone to extras. Bourn's error cost the Phillies the chance to win the game.

Source:
Picture of Michael Bourn from the Reading Eagle

Phillies young relievers get the job done

2007-05-26T00:29:00.000-05:00

After the Phillies opened up a four run lead old man Charlie decided to air out the back end of his bullpen. Michael Zagurski who the Phils called up after they placed Brett Myers on the DL pitched a scoreless eighth and Yoel Hernandez threw a clean ninth. Zagurski rocketed through the minors. Starting at Clearwater and then moving to Reading he caught the attention of the Phillies brass striking out 43 batters in 23.1 innings. Michael was mediocre while pitching in college at the University of Kansas. Despite his weak college stats he has gotten better every year in the Phillies farm system. On top of all that Zagurski the lone southpaw in the bullpen can help get left handers out.

I’m a big Yoel Hernandez fan. He has great minor league numbers and will no doubt help the Phillies in the future. The question is whether he can help out in the present. Without both Myers and Gordon the Phillies the bullpen is in shambles. This will force Charlie to use both Hernandez and Zagurski. The Phillies need someone to step up and maybe that someone can either Zagurski or Hernandez.

Source:
Picture of Yoel Hernandez from MLB.com

Rod Barajas angers me

2007-05-24T22:28:00.000-05:00

Last night Rod Barajas nearly lost the game for the Phillies when he pansied out and shied away from covering up the home plate allowing a run to score. Tonight he again looked frightened and sheepish. Barajas tried to tag out Miguel Olivo using only his gloved hand. Olivo ran hard and was able to knock the ball loose and scored. If Barajas had used his none glove hand to secure the ball then the ball would have stayed put and Olivo would have been out.

Barajas was supposed to play solid defense and throw in a few homers. Rod's defense has been appallingly bad. He has thrown out two of eight runners who were attempting a steal. That's below his career average. His offense hasn't been much better. Batting .208 with 2 homers just doesn't cut it.

I didn't criticize many of Pat Gillick’s off-season moves. At the time of the Barajas signing I thought the Phillies didn't need him. Now what I suspected then has been confirmed. Carlos Ruiz is ready to be an every day player and Rod Barajas isn't worth his roster spot.

Source:
Picture of Rod Barajas from eurosport2.com

Phillies looking at Percival

2007-05-24T00:04:00.000-05:00

Former closer Troy Percival who has 324 career saves is considering a comeback attempt. Percival is currently a pitching instructor in Angel’s minor league system and has asked the team for a release from his contract. Percival was a dominant closer but injuries limited him to pitching only 26 games in 2005 and prevented him from pitching in a single game last season for the Detroit Tigers. Percival is no spring chicken at 38 but if healthy could help out the Phillies pitching in a middle relief role.

Pat Gillick who was watching Ryan Howard make a rehab start told Dei Lynam that brining Percival to Philadelphia was a possibility. Gillick prefaced his comments by saying that Troy is a west coast guy. He also commented nothing was final until the Angels released Percival.

Sources:
Picture of Troy Percival from beck.mlblogs.com

Percival to leave coaching and try comeback from AP

Charlie Manuel is DEAD TO ME

2007-05-23T23:00:00.000-05:00

The Phillies won tonight but it sure doesn’t feel like it. Between Greg Dobbs throwing home instead of taking the sure out at first and wimpy Rod Barajas allowing a run to score because he didn’t want to cover the plate the Phils didn’t deserve to win tonight. On top of that Brett Myers left the game with a strained right shoulder. Normally injuries are random occurrences a fan must chalk up to disapproval from the baseball gods. However, in this case the blame lies squarely on the shoulders of Charlie Manuel.

According to the book a closer pitches one inning in the ninth when his team leads by three runs or less. Every rule has its exceptions but Charlie has regularly tempted fate angering the otherwise benevolent baseball deities. Myers has pitched more the one inning five times and two whole inning three times. In addition he has pitched twice including tonight when the Phillies had a four run lead or in a non-save situation. Myers strained shoulder is a result of Charlie overworking his closer.

Tonight the Phillies had a four run lead in the ninth and both Brett Myers and Francisco Rosario throwing warm up pitches in the bullpen. The correct choice would be Rosario and it’s a no brainer. I think Rosario is not a very good pitcher. He has great stuff but can’t consistently throw strikes. However, if Charlie Manuel doesn’t have confidence that Francisco Rosario can’t stop the Marlins from scoring three runs in one inning than he shouldn’t be on the Phillies roster. Brett Myers may not have to go on the disabled list. But no matter what happens this event should serve as a warning to Charlie Manuel.

Source:
Picture of Brett Myers from MLB.com

Upcoming road trip is key

2007-05-22T00:46:00.000-05:00

After a successful 7-3 home stand the Phillies are heading on a six game road trip. The Phillies will battle the Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves in two three game series. Even though it’s early in the season the Phillies trip down South will show the stuff they’re made of. The Phils don’t have any hope of making the playoffs if they don’t have a good record against their division. So far this season the Phillies are 3-3 against the Marlins and 1-5 against the Braves and 8-13 against the entire NL East. In the past the Phightens have not done well against the NL East and its hurt them in their quest to make the playoffs. The Phils need to turn that trend around to make a run and the Mets and end their 14-year playoff drought. Two more series wins in Florida and Atlanta would go a long way towards that goal.

Source:
Picture of the Phillies from MLB.com

No southpaws in the pen

2007-05-20T23:56:00.000-05:00

The Phillies optioned left-handed reliever Fabio Castro to AA Reading today. The Phils had brought up Castro last month to replace Matt Smith who struggled at the beginning of the season. Smith had done a fantastic job for the Phillies earning a 2.08 ERA and striking out 12 through 8 and two-thirds innings.

Smith’s problem at the beginning of the season was control. In 4 innings he walked a baffling 11 batters. Now I’m no expert but even I could see that Smith was having issues with mechanics. Up in Ottawa Smith’s statistics say that he has figured out the problem. In 7.2 innings he has walked only 2 batters and struck out 5.

The Phillies have an off day tomorrow and haven’t called up a player to replace Castro’s roster spot. My bet is that Smith comes back to reclaim his role in the bullpen. If effective Smith could be an useful weapon for Charlie Manuel.

Sources:
Picture of Matt Smith from MLB.com

Old man Moyer gets knocked around

2007-05-19T22:55:00.000-05:00

There are many reasons why I love to watch the Phillies. One of the reasons is Jamie Moyer. Moyer doesn’t have a blazing fastball or a knee buckling curve ball. He uses brains and finesse to finish hitters. For me there’s nothing better than the frustrated frowns on opposing hitter’s faces after they just swung through a 72 MPH change up.

The downside to Moyer is when he can’t locate his pitches he’s going to get hit. Unfortunately tonight was one of those nights. Old man Moyer got shelled giving up two home runs and seven earned. Every cloud has a silver lining and tonight’s blow out is no exception. This game allowed the Phillies to get a better look at the back end of the bullpen. Yoel Hernandez, Francisco Rosario, Clay Condrey, and Fabio Castro have only pitched 35.1 innings combined in the 2007 season. All of these guys have potential. The one question is who will step up earn the right to pitch in the sixth and seventh innings.

I especially like what I saw from Yoel Hernandez. Last season Hernandez was a top Phillies prospect that was mowing down hitters in the minors until his season was cut short by an injury. Last season at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Hernandez had a 3.40 ERA in 55.2 innings with 52 strikeouts. All he needs is an opportunity. A few more pitching performances like last night and Hernandez might be able to make his stay in Major permanent.

Sources:
Picture of Jamie Moyer from MSNBC.com

Charlie lets Lieber pitch

2007-05-18T22:53:00.000-05:00

The back end of the Phillies bullpen is woefully bad. This leaves Charlie Manuel in a difficult situation. To avoid using the bullpen Manuel chooses to let his starters pitch as many innings as possible. The Phillies are winning baseball games now but it won’t last if Charlie doesn’t start trusting his bullpen.

The Phillies starters have been throwing a lot of pitches. Tired starters are bad for the Phillies long-term success for several reasons. In this most recent game Jon Lieber threw 109 times in six innings giving up two innings. That’s a good days work for Lieber. Manuel chose to trot Lieber out for the seventh inning and he promptly gave up a home run to Matt Stairs. Fatigued pitchers have a pension to pitch poorly so it’s no coincidence that Lieber gave a dinger.

Using starters longer also means less pinch-hitting. When Manuel let Lieber lead off the sixth inning he was essentially conceding an out. The Phillies could have much more easily scored a much-needed insurance run if he had pinch-hit.

Sources:
Picture of Jon Lieber from MLB.com

I'm Back

2007-05-18T18:28:00.001-05:00

I've been neglecting the blog lately but now I'm back and better than ever. As all my fellow college students can attest finals can take over your life. Unfortunately I didn't have time to do anything but school work. Now I'm back home in my couch crease and watching the Phillies take on Blue Jays. Life is good.

The pivotal at bat

2007-05-07T23:25:00.000-05:00

After back to back doubles by Abraham Nunez and Carlos Ruiz, Charlie Manuel had to make a game altering decision. Freddy Garcia had used only 77 pitches to work through six innings. Charlie had two options. Let Garcia bunt over Ruiz and hope Jimmy Rollins could bat the run home or pinch hit and play for the lead. Grandpa Charlie elected for the later and the Phillies scored that run tying up the game. That turned out to be the wrong play.

Hind site is twenty-twenty but pinch hitting for Garcia was the wrong move. Garcia can lay down a bunt and can do something that his replacement Antonio Alfonseca couldn't. That is prevent runs from scoring. I can't understand what Manuel was thinking. Garcia was mowing batters at an very efficient rate. Why would you take him out of the game? Charlie put himself in a situation where he had to use the woefully bad Francisco Rosario. Who then lost the game.

Sources:
Picture of Charlie Manuel from MLB.com

DOH!

2007-05-06T21:02:00.000-05:00

To be honored with the title Major League baseball player mean you are a gifted athlete and have a shrewd mind. That’s why I laughed so hard today when I read that during batting practice before Sunday’s game against the San Francisco Giants while chasing a fly ball Freddy Garcia ran in an equipment cart. Fortunately a cart was near by to aid in taking Garcia off the field. Don’t worry he didn’t break anything; he just has a blue spot on his leg and one bruised ego.

Garcia could miss one start. Speaking about the incident Pat Gillick commented, "This is the kind of thing that could get sore and stiffen up overnight, so we have to keep tabs on that.” Charlie Manuel and Rich Dubee have yet to decide who if needed will start in his spot. Possibilities include J.A. Happ and Brian Mazone who have both been dominating hitters for the AAA Ottawa Lynx. Zach Segovia who started the season with the Phillies could also get another cup of coffee.

Sources:
Collision with cart puts Garcia in question for start
By AP / ESPN.com

Picture of Freddy Garcia from comcastsportsnet.com

Madson heading the DL

2007-05-06T13:01:00.000-05:00

Phillies right hander Ryan Madson is heading to the disabled list weakening an already shaky bullpen. Even though the season is only a month old the Phillies bullpen has undergone major changes. After the Myers-Lieber swap, Gordon injuring his elbow, and now Madson straining his right oblique half of the Phils pen has been overhauled since the beginning of the season.

This has me very concerned. In the last half of the month the Phillies bullpen has stabilized and become a strength of the team. This recent injury bug threatens that stability. Young guns like Yoel Hernandez, Francisco Rosario, and Fabio Castro will have to step up for the Phillies to continue to have success.

Opening Day Relievers
Tom Gordon
Antonio Alfonseca
Geoff Geary
Ryan Madson
Jon Lieber
Matt Smith
Clay Condrey
Current Relievers
Brett Myers
Antonio Alfonseca
Geoff Geary
Yoel Hernandez
Francisco Rosario
Fabio Castro
Clay Condrey

Sources:
Picture of Ryan Madson from MLB.com

I can’t say I’m surprised

2007-05-03T14:14:00.000-05:00

The Philadelphia Phillies are traveling to San Francisco minus their struggling closer Tom Gordon. Gordon has pain in his right elbow and will return to Philadelphia to see the doctor and I can’t say I’m surprised. Gordon is a very fine relief pitcher who has recently lost velocity on his fastball and the bite on his breaking pitches. So it makes sense that Gordon isn’t one hundred percent healthy.

This news hastens what seemed inevitable once the Phillies moved Brett Myers into the bullpen. Brett Myers is the Phillies closer for 2007. Alfonseca and Geary are best suited for pitching in a set up role. I think that whether or not Gordon takes a trip to the disabled list Myers will be the new closer. The best move for the Phillies is to let Gordon rest and get healthy. Gordon can’t help the Phillies pitching in any role if he doesn’t have his best stuff to throw. When Tom comes back he can set up Brett Myers.

Sources:
Phillies send Gordon home to have solder examined
From AP / ESPN.com

Phils finally beat the Braves

2007-05-02T00:38:00.000-05:00

After losing four in a row including a three game sweep at home it must have felt good for the Phils to get their first win over the Atlanta Braves. The Braves had been a pain in the side of the Phillies earning three of their four victories in come from behind fashion.

The Phigten Phils have gelled as a team. I think a big part of the change has to do with Brett Myers move to the bullpen. Starting pitching may be important but you can’t underestimate the importance of strong relief pitching. Tom Gordon and Brett Myers who are both pitching great own the eighth and ninth inning. This shortens games for the Phillies.

The player who made room for Myers, Jon Lieber is doing his best to make Charlie Manuel look like a genius. I’m thrilled Lieber is pitching better but I just can’t believe this is going to keep up. Then again hopefully I’m wrong and the Phillies will ride this move to a NL East title.

The Phillies have caught fire

2007-04-24T21:18:00.000-05:00

Four days ago the Phillies had the worst record in the Majors and were finding creative ways to lose baseball games. No lead was safe with the woeful bullpen. The offense wasn’t hitting with runners in scoring position. All of that has changed for the better and the Phillies caught fire.

The most encouraging part of the most recent win is the performance of Tom Gordon. Gordon pitched a strong ninth earning the save while striking out Brian Schneider and inducing two ground balls. The only hit he gave up was a sharply hit spinning ground ball that ate up Wes Helms at third base.

More importantly Gordon’s curve ball has reappeared. Early in the season Gordon inexplicably threw his signature pitch sparingly. In this game Gordon used the curve often effectively. Tom is very important to the Phillies success. If the quartet of Gordon, Myers, Alfonseca, and Geary pitch well the bullpen a perceived weakness could become the Phillies greatest strength.

Sources:
Picture of Tom Gordon profantasysports.com

Ryan Howard Mad!

2007-04-23T21:16:00.000-05:00

The Phillies are finally playing winning baseball, winning their third in a row over the Astros. Despite that I have a knot in my stomach. The source of my worry is the 2006 NL MVP Ryan Howard. Last season Howard looked relaxed and typically wore a big smile from ear to ear. This season Ryan seems to become more frustrated after every strike out. In the Phillies most recent game Howard broke his bat on the ground after slicing his bat over a change up.

To borrow a phrase from a friend Ryan Howard needs to chillax (chill and relax for the uneducated). Despite all of the strikeouts Howard’s K/ABs has actually gone down from 2006 to 2007. In 2006 Howard earned a third strike once every 3.2 at bats. This year that number is down to 2.94. Howard has also walked unintentionally 13 times in 50 ABs. The walks show Ryan still has tremendous plate discipline.

Howard’s swing also appears to be fine. He simply needs to realize he can’t hit a homer every time he comes to the plate and he will swing and miss often. Once he comes to term with this simple truth he might find that his smile has returned and so have the home runs.

Sources:
Picture of Ryan Howard from yorkblog.com

What?

2007-04-18T17:33:00.001-05:00

The news hit the wire a few hours ago and my jaw dropped. Brett Myers moving to the bullpen and Jon Lieber moving to the rotation. I couldn’t believe it. Todd Zolecki had written an article during the summer speculating that the Phillies could make this move if Lieber remained a Phillie and if the bullpen struggled.

I think that this is a really terrible idea. Brett Myers is in the top echelon of starting pitchers. A player of that caliber doesn’t come along everyday. I know full well that the bullpen is in tatters but this feels like a move of desperation. Having a strong group of relief pitchers is very important but relievers have less value than starting pitchers because they pitch fewer innings.

The Phillies probably made this move because Lieber is better suited to pitch as a starter. However, Jon Lieber isn’t a very good starting pitcher. His presence in the rotation doesn’t help it hurts.

Sources:
Picture of Jon Lieber from cantstopthebleeding.com

Phillies move Myers to 'pen; Lieber to start
by Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Garcia’s much belated debut

2007-04-17T21:16:00.000-05:00

After starting the season on the disabled list and two rain delays the Phillies biggest off-season acquisition Freddy Garcia played his first game in 2007. Garcia’s line 4 2/3 IP, 8 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks, six strikeouts, and one home run is pretty ugly. But there is a silver lining to the storm the Mets offense unleashed.

Garcia had two rough spots in a mostly well-pitched game. In the second he gave up a two run bomb to Moses Alou. For Garcia giving up home runs is par the course. Last season Garcia gave up 6.76 home runs per nine innings. Freddy ran into more trouble in the fifth when he gave up singles to Tom Glavine and back up catcher Ramon Castro. He then served up an RBI double to Carlos Beltran.

There are a few things to be optimistic regarding Garcia’s first start. He didn’t pitch far in the game because he ran so many three ball counts. However, this wasn’t due to a lack of command. Garcia was pounding the strike zone. The umpire just wasn’t calling his pitches strikes. Also Garcia probably would have stayed in the game to pitch his way out of the jam in the fifth if it hadn’t been his first game of the season. Next time Charlie Manuel will let Garcia go over the one hundred-pitch mark and finish what he started.

Sources:
Picture of Freddy Garcia from tsn.com

Alfonseca is Charlie’s choice

2007-04-14T17:59:00.000-05:00

I began to wonder today watching the game who would Manuel choose to pitch in eighth inning with the Phillies leading by three runs. As the penultimate frame approached I saw a number of relievers warming in the pen. In turn Matt Smith, Ryan Madson, and Antonio Alfonseca prepared for entering the game. Charlie’s choice was Antonio Alfonseca.

As I speculated during the summer what role Alfonseca would occupy, his health was the big question mark. The Texas Rangers cut Antonio because of injury issues and it was unclear whether the 35-year-old reliever was one hundred percent when the season started. After watching him pitch for a few games he looks great. His fastball has good movement and his sinker plummets like a rock when approaching the plate. A pitcher who has a great sinker like Alfonseca can keep opposing hitters from hitting the ball hard even when throwing in Citizen’s Bank Park. I hope I never have to write another post regarding who will be the Phillies set up man because Antonio is the man in the eighth.

Sources:
Picture of Antonio Alfonseca form MLB.com

What was Gillick thinking?

2007-04-13T14:20:00.000-05:00

Yesterday it was announced that Phillies minor leaguer Hector Made will serve a 50 game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. That news alone filled me with disgust. I have very little tolerance for cheating and personally find using performance-enhancing drugs morally reprehensible.

After I got over my initial revulsion I became even more upset to learn that the Phillies acquired Made in a trade for Sal Fasano last season. Was Pat Gillick high when he made that trade? Made has never advanced above high single A ball and has a career batting average of .269. Hector Made isn’t a prospect. He’s a tool who takes up a spot in the infield and spot in the batting order so there will have enough players for a game for real prospects to play.

Why did this trade happen? Sal Fasano is no Mike Liberthal and that’s saying something but he was an established major league catcher. Fasano wasn’t costing the Phillies a lot of money. Instead Gillick traded for a back up second basemen who will never see the majors and does performance-enhancing drugs. You get no cool points for this move Pat.

Sources:
Picture of Sal Fasano from foxsports.com

Phillies’ prospect Made suspended for 50 games after positive test
By Philly.com staff writer / Philly.com

On a cold night in Flushing

2007-04-12T21:01:00.000-05:00

Everything was cold tonight in New York except for Jimmy Rollins who caught fire hitting two dingers bringing. Rollins who has now hit five home runs is on a power tear and now leads the NL in home runs. The home runs are nice but the number that I find most impressive is .415 OBP. .415 sticks out because Rollins has a career .330 OBP. The one criticism leveled against Rollins has been his inability to walk resulting in that low on base percentage. Jimmy Rollins is the heart of the Phillies offense. Rollins is the motor that starts the Phillies offense. If Jimmy can continue to draw walks the Phillies should have great success in the future.

Jamie Moyer pitched well enough. If Moyer hadn’t struck out Beltran to end the sixth it would have been a lot worse. With the Phillies ability to produce runs they should win the game when their starter throws six innings and gives up only four.

The disappointment in this game came from how the Phillies best hitters preformed. The Phillies had their 3-4-5 batters start off the third, sixth, and ninth innings and have nothing to show for it. The only hit by the heart of the Phillies order was a double by Ryan Howard in the ninth. That’s not nearly enough.

Sources:
Picture of Jimmy Rollins from Yankees2000.com

ESPN is DEAD TO ME

2007-04-12T07:33:00.001-05:00

This is a Phillies blog but I need to rant about the screw-ups running ESPN fantasy baseball. For those of you who don’t know the situation, ESPN had been having a myriad of issues with their fantasy baseball service during the first week of the season including not processing waiver claims, an inability to edit your roster, and incorrect scoring. The only way they could solve the problem was to shutdown the whole service for a day, revert all rosters to opening day, and give stats accrued during the week by players not on the bench.

To put it simply on Tuesday I led 3 of my ESPN fantasy leagues and was a strong second in a fourth. Today, I am first in one league, fourth in two, and in infuriating eighth in another! I missed out big time because I had both Pat Burrell and Cole Hamels on my benches because I needed to clear the way for Cardinals and Mets who were playing in the season opener. There I knew I’d get it back to the Phillies somehow. Burrell and Hamels were both great late round values.

The definition of inconsistency

2007-04-11T21:56:00.000-05:00

If case you ever wondered what it meant for a pitcher to be inconsistent just look to Oliver Perez’s most recent pitching performance against the Phillies. Perez cruised through the first 8 Phils striking out two without giving up a hit. Then instantly he went from good to bad giving up a single to Chase Utley and walking Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Wes Helms, Aaron Rowand, and then caped it off by hitting Rod Barajas. Perez handed 3 runs to the Phillies. Not that I’m complaining, the Phillies needed those runs.

Overall the Phightens play was encouraging. Adam Eaton followed up a terrible season debut with an excellent start giving up two runs over seven innings and the Phillies relieving core got the job done. Antonio Alfonseca pitched a perfect inning in the eighth and Tom Gordon followed earning a save in the ninth.

This victory also revealed Charlie Manuel’s philosophy regarding how he wants to use his starting pitching staff. With two outs and a runner on first Manuel elected to keep Eaton in the game instead of pinch-hitting. Manuel’s non-move committed Eaton to pitch another inning after he had already thrown 92 pitches. Manuel could have pinch-hit in that situation if the Phillies had more reliable pitchers in the bullpen. Instead Manuel had to roll the dice and send out a fatigued Eaton to pitch the seventh. Today Eaton got the job done and made Manuel look smart. However, the question of whether to pitch a weary starter or bad reliever has no good answer and will eventually costing the Phillies victories.

Sources:
Picture of Adam Eaton from MLB.com

Miscues sink Phils in the eighth

2007-04-09T22:05:00.000-05:00

The good news is the Ryan Howard hit his first home run of the year. The bad news is the Phillies lost in abominable fashion. Heading into the bottom half of the eighth inning the Phillies had a one run lead over the Mets and Geoff Geary on the mound. Then the badness started. After a deadly combination of singles, walks, and an extremely costly error by Jimmy Rollins the Mets put up seven runs on the scoreboard and took the lead.

Geoff Geary pitched horrendously giving up two hits, two walks, a wild pitch over two thirds of an inning. Lieber also pitched poorly giving up two runs while giving up two hits and walking in his 2007 debut. To summarize the Phillies don’t have any of those, what do you call them…good relief pitchers.

The Phillies need to rally and start winning baseball games. Poor starts in 2005 and 2006 were the reasons those Phillies teams of old didn’t make the playoffs. This year's Phils seem intent on continuing that losing tradition. There’s an old baseball proverb, “You can’t win a pennant in April but you can lose one.” The 2007 Phillies are doing the latter in glorious fashion.

Sources:
Picture of Ryan Howard from MLB.com

Phillies offense about to explode

2007-04-08T12:25:00.000-05:00

I have a prediction. The Phils offense is a volcano about to erupt. Over the past five games they have racked up 48 hits and only 22 runs. That’s a ratio 2.18 hits per run. For this particular offense that number is way out of whack. Last season the Phils needed only 1.75 hits to score a run. While that may not seem like a significant difference the rise from 1.75 to 2.18 would represent about 200 runs over the course of a season. That change would represent the shift from the best to the worst offense in the NL.

I am optimistic as usual for one reason. The lack of run production has a very obvious source, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Utley tallied his first RBI last night and Howard has yet to pop his 2007 RBI cherry. Howard did look pretty terrible yesterday swinging a very slow bat while going 0 for 5. Call me crazy but I believe those guys can rake and will heat up soon.

Source:
Picture of Ryan Howard from forums.g4tv.com

Phew, Phils win their first

2007-04-07T13:37:00.000-05:00

The Phillies reminded us yesterday why so many experts chose this team to make it to the playoffs. Jamie Moyer had an excellent start and the Phils offense came alive scoring eight runs. This game writes the script the Phillies will need to follow if they want to win baseball games.

The Phillies need to rely on their strengths to overcome their weaknesses. For the Phils to win games they must take the lead. I swear that’s not as dumb as it reads. The weaknesses of this Phillies team are amplified when they are losing for two reasons. First the bullpen stinks. No lead is safe with Ryan Madson. Second the Phillies offense is very good. However, too many of the Phillies RBIs come from home runs. When the score is tight the Phillies hitters seem to tense up in an attempt to hit a long ball. Ironically trying to hit a home run is a bad way to drive one out of the park and a great way to pop up to the short stop.

The Phillies season will depend on suffocating starting pitching and three run home runs. If this team can’t do either consistently get ready for a long season.

Sources:
Picture of Jamie Moyer from chrisoleary.com

Phils add depth to the pen

2007-04-05T17:25:00.000-05:00

Pat Gillick acquired reliever Francisco Rosario from the Toronto Blue Jays to help a beleaguered bullpen. Rosario struggled last season in the majors, but during his time in the Blue Jays farm system Rosario had a 3.38 ERA striking out 8.22 hitters every nine innings.

Gillick thinks Rosario could help the Phils, commenting, “We think he has a power arm. He's had a poor track record, but we think he turned the corner this spring. He has a lot of upside. He's a guy we've watched since last season."

This is a pretty good move for this Phillies. Pat Gillick only had to give up $100K in return for a useful reliever. Getting any useful potentially useful player for that little money is a high-quality move. Rosario is a power pitcher with control problems. If Rosario could learn to master the strike zone then he could contribute to the pen.

Francisco Rosario is a nice addition but this move alone isn’t enough to save the leaking shipping that is the Phillies bullpen. I’m trying not to freak out about how terrible the bullpen has been over the first two games. However, the sky is clearly falling. Gillick needs to acquire a reliever who won’t screw up like Madson. He has the pieces to trade and it’s time to pull the trigger.

Sources:
Picture of Francisco Rosario from MLB.com

Rosario expected to bolster Phillies’ bullpen
From AP

Who is the set up man?

2007-04-04T21:28:00.000-05:00

This off-season it was widely speculated that the Phillies would make a trade to acquire a reliever that could pitch in late inning situations. Charlie Manuel has yet to come out and declare any of the current Phillies the set up man, which begs the question. Who will Charlie Manuel pitch in the eighth inning with the game on the line?

The Phillies most recent game against the Braves suggested that no one pitcher would serve in that role. To start of the eighth Manuel chose Matt Smith to face Chris Woodward and Kelly Johnson. Then he brought in Geoff Geary who induced the final two outs of the inning. The way Manuel managed this suggests the Phillies opponents will see Smith, Geary, and possibly Alfonseca pitch in similar situations in the future.

I’m not a big fan of this system. Relief pitchers need to constantly be reminded of their role in the pen. Knowing what inning a pitcher will throw in before hand can help a pitcher prepare. Charlie Manuel knows this and probably wants one of the Phillies to show they can pitch up to that level. No matter what happens someone better distinguish them self from the pack because Tom Gordon looks awful and Ryan Madson is only good for losing games.

Sources:
Picture of Geoff Geary from scouts.com

Charlie makes a bold move

2007-04-02T16:03:00.000-05:00

Charlie Manuel must have been secretly very excited. The score was tied with two outs in ninth. Shane Victorino stood on second base after slapping a double. Big Ryan Howard came up to the plate and took his intentional walk. It looked like Charlie’s experiment might pay off. Unfortunately, Chase Utley came up to the plate and promptly popped out Chipper Jones in foul territory.

The lineup everyone expected to see had Ryan Howard penciled in hitting fourth and Chase Utley hitting third. The lineup switcheroo was probably a reaction to the criticism that Howard wasn’t protected in the Phillies lineup. Charlie’s experiment went exactly as planned except that Utley couldn’t deliver.

Despite the Phillies loss, I think pushing Howard down in the order is a fantastic idea. Utley has enough power to hit cleanup and more importantly provides more protection for Howard. Stat heads will tell you the idea of protection is a myth. Personally I don’t really trust those particular statistics. I can write with confidence that Chase Utley will knock in the game winning RBI more times than Pat Burrell. Charlie would be wise to continue his experimentation.

Sources:
Picture of Chase Utley from MLB.com

Notes: Utley, Howard swtich spots
by Ken Mandel / MLB.com

2007 Official Phans Blog Predictions

2007-04-01T18:57:00.000-05:00

National League Division Champions:
East: Philadelphia Phillies (NL Champion)
Central: Milwaukee Brewers
West: Arizona Diamondbacks
Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers

American League Division Champions:
East: Boston Red Sox
Central: Cleveland Indians (AL Champions)
West: Oakland A’s
Wild Card: Detroit Tigers

World Series:
Philadelphia Phillies over the Cleveland Indians

Enjoy the first game of the season between the Mets and Cardinals tonight. Baseball has finally returned!

Breaking down the NL East: Washington Nationals

2007-04-01T10:48:00.000-05:00

Position Players:
The Nationals will have a terrible offense and that’s a compliment. Ryan Zimmerman is a first class third basemen and also the only quality bat on the team. Besides Zimmerman the Nats have average players Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and a cast of rejects. The Nationals don’t have enough speed, power, or average in a ballpark that suppresses offense in the first place.

Starting Rotation:
The Nationals may have the worst rotation in baseball. There only good starter is John Patterson who when healthy is a solid number two starter. The Nationals number two starter is Shawn Hill a decent minor league pitcher whose upside is a 4.30 ERA. After Hill the Nationals will field expired prospects and defunct veterans not even worth mentioning. All you need to know is they stink at pitching.

Bullpen:
If the Nationals ever get the lead in a game, they will have a solid bullpen to lock that win down. Chad Cordero owns the ninth inning as the Nationals closer. John Rauch and Ray will be solid contributors. Overall the Nats have a solid group of relievers.

Prediction:
The Nationals will lose many many baseball games. This could be a one hundred plus loss team. If I had to choose a number of wins I'd go with 52 but that number could be smaller.

Sources:
Picture of Ryan Zimmerman from ESPN.com

Breaking down the NL East: New York Mets

2007-03-29T00:39:00.000-05:00

Position Players:
On paper the Mets have the best offense in the National League. The Mets added more firepower to a team that scored 834 runs last season by signing veteran bat Moises Alou in right field. Jose Reyes and David Wright are young super stars that will only get better with age. Carlos Delgado and Beltran will knock in 100 runs each. Complimenting that solid core are productive veterans Jose Valentin, Shawn Green, and Paul Lo Duca. The Mets should have a first class offense and will be tough to out slug.

Starting Rotation:
The Mets rotation is made of youngsters and old men. Well-aged Tom Glavine and the ancient Orlando Hernandez are the Mets only proven starters. Glavine is a future Hall of Famer and will most likely turn in another quality season. El Duque on the other hand is an average pitcher in addition to being a huge injury risk. The last three rotation spots will be filled either by past their prime vets like Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele or unproven talents like Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, and John Maine. Pedro Martinez will come to the rescue in July. But that will probably be too late to save the Mets.

Bullpen:
The Mets bullpen recently suffered a big blow when it was announced that Duaner Sanchez will miss 3-4 months after he gets a surgery needed to repair a hairline fracture near his right shoulder. To compound the Mets bullpen woes Guillermo Mota will have to serve a 50 game suspension for violating the MLBs steroid policy. Besides those problems the Mets have a strong pen anchored by closer and former Phillie Billy Wagner. Aaron Heilman will serve as the setup man and Pedro Feliciano, Dave Williams, Scott Schoenweiss, and Ambiorix Burgos will pitch in the middle innings. Even after you count the losses of Sanchez and Mota the Mets still have a very strong bullpen.

Prediction:
Winning teams have good starting rotations. The Mets starting will falter and the extra pressure on the bullpen will cause it to break down. The Mets will win games by putting up a lot of runs. However, that won’t be enough to win the division for a second consecutive year. The Mets will finish third in the division with 81 wins.

Sources:
Picture of Jose Reyes from MLB.com

Phillies make surprise cut

2007-03-28T20:35:00.000-05:00

The Phillies placed utility outfielder Karim Garcia on waivers opening up a spot on the bench. Garcia has been expected to make the team as a fifth outfielder that would provide Charlie Manuel with a left handed pinch hitter.

This move caught me off guard. Usually teams don’t cut players they recently signed who are having good spring trainings. Garcia had been hitting .305 with 1 homer, 7 RBIs in 59 at bats. Spring training numbers have no correlation with regulation season performance but those stats are nothing to scoff at.

Overall I think this move benefits the Phillies. Greg Dobbs will most likely take Garcia’s place on the bench. Dobbs can play at first, third, and the corner outfield positions providing the Phillies with additional position flexibility. Dumping the veteran Garcia’s salary also saves the Phils a few hundred thousand dollars.

Assuming Dobbs makes the team the Phillies will still have one more spot on their bench. Phan’s Blog favorite Chris Coste could eventually fill that spot but will start the season on the 15 day DL. There’s no clear favorite as to who will occupy that spot during Coste’s period of convalescence. However, assuming that Pat Gillick hasn’t gone insane and forgotten that Coste is still injured he probably has some plan of action.

Sources:
Phillies release Garcia
By Rob Maaddi / AP Sports

Picture of Karim Garcia from MLB.com

Where are all the south paws?

2007-03-27T23:56:00.000-05:00

Last season the Phillies bullpen had three reliable left-handers in Aaron Fultz, Rheal Cormier, and Arthur Rhodes. The dearth of southpaws gave Charlie Manuel a lot of options when he needed to get a left-handed batter out late in a game. Today the Phillies sent both Eude Brito and Fabio Castro to the minors leaving Matt Smith as the lone lefty in the Phillies bullpen.

Many analysts point to the lack of a trustworthy set up man as the main flaw of the Phillies bullpen. However, that’s not the case. The biggest problem is that Matt Smith isn’t a great option as a left-handed specialist. There are a number of talented hitters in the NL East who hit from the left side of the plate including Brian McCann, Chipper Jones, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran. Matt Smith just isn’t going to get the job done. Smith had good numbers last year throwing 8.2 innings with a 2.08 ERA. However, he pitched poorly when the game was on the line.

Pat Gillick could do a lot to help the bullpen by acquiring a left-handed reliever. Another reliever who could hold lefty hitters to a low average would really improve the Phillies bullpen.

Sources:
Picture of Matt Smith from dynastymanager.com

Deep Breaths

2007-03-22T16:46:00.000-05:00

The blood pressure of Phillies phan nation spiked yesterday after the news that Freddy Garcia left a game pitching against Toronto Blue Jays with tenderness near his right bicep. Suddenly the Phillies rotation the greatest strength of the 2007 team had melted away. Auspiciously the good news came out today that Garcia is ok and will be ready to pitch by opening day.

Going through this whole situation has made me reconsider my position on trading Jon Lieber. If Garcia’s injury had been more serious and Pat Gillick had already traded Lieber then the Phillies would have been caught pissing in the wind. Upon closer examination the Phightens have an injury risk plagued rotation. Adam Eaton missed much of last season after he needed surgery on his middle finger. Cole Hamels has back problems that he will deal with for his whole career. On top of that the Phils now have to worry about Garcia’s elbow.

The Phillies pitching surplus is a blessing not a curse. If any of the starters go down than the Phillies will need Lieber to stay competitive.

Sources:
Picture of Freddy Garcia from:
Injuries to Garcia, and Ruiz not serious
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Lieber heading to the pen

2007-03-21T19:58:00.000-05:00

Charlie decided today that it would be Lieber not Eaton who would pitch out of the pen in lieu of a trade. No explanation for the decision was given except Charlie Manuel’s comments that, “It was a real tough decision”.

I think the Phillies brain trust made the wrong decision. The reason that Charlie Manuel had to make a “real tough decision” is that Pat Gillick couldn’t trade Lieber. Lieber pitching in the bullpen decreases his value as a trade commodity. Relievers have less value than starters.

The Phillies may have decided to take the less controversial path. Jon Lieber’s contract runs out at the end of the season and Eaton will be a Phillie for at least the next three seasons. Whoever Manuel demoted to the bullpen would undoubtedly be disappointed. It may have simply been easier for the Phillies to upset the pitcher whose feelings they won’t have to consider for much longer.

Sources:
Lieber moved to bullpen
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Jon Lieber from MLB.com

Breaking down the NL East: Florida Marlins

2007-03-20T22:34:00.000-05:00

This is the second in a series of posts reviewing the off seasons of the Phillies NL East rivals. This post examines the Florida Marlins chances for success in 2007.

Position Player:
The Marlins have the same excellent infield as last season. Miguel Cabrera is one of the best young players in the game and Hanley Ramirez should be a first rate shortstop. Dan Uggla over preformed last season. His minor league numbers suggest that he should hit 20 dingers but with a lower average. Catcher Miguel Olivo should provide a pedestrian average and chip in a dozen or so homers. The Marlins outfield is peppered with inexperienced and injured players. Jeremy Hermida has the pedigree but has yet to prove himself. Alex Sanchez has never played a full season. Josh Willingham should throw in twenty bombs and 90 RBIs. Last season the Florida Marlins scored 758 runs ranking them eighth in the National League. They only scored that many runs because everything went right. Probability demands that the same thing won’t happen again.

Starting Rotation:
Marlins ace Dontrelle Willis anchors the starting rotation. The rest of the Marlins rotation is green. Young pitchers will struggle. It’s baseball law. Scott Olsen, Annibal Sanchez, and Josh Johnson all have great stuff. However, they will take their lumps like everyone else. Due to their inexperience the Marlins rotation is a huge liability.

Bullpen:
The worst part of this team is the bullpen. There is no clear closer, set up man, or even a quality middle reliever. I don’t like to repeat myself but I can’t say it enough. The Marlins young pitchers will struggle. Who would have thought the Fish would miss Joe Borowski?

Prediction:
The Marlins overachieved as a team last season and made no significant moves to improve their roster. On top of all that the Marlins management thought that it would be a good idea to fire 2006 NL manager of the year Joe Girardi. The Marlins could easily lose 100 games in 2007. It’s a tribute to how terrible the Nationals will be that the Florida should finish fourth in the division.

Source:
Picture of Dontrelle Willis from the thediamondangle.com

Five is a rotation; six is a problem

2007-03-20T15:15:00.000-05:00

Everyone knows the situation. Six starting pitchers is one too many. If Pat Gillick can’t find a trade partner than one of the six will move to the bullpen. The question is who.

Jamie Moyer doesn’t throw hard enough to throw in relief. Cole Hamels has way too much talent. Freddy Garcia’s greatest value is as a starter because of his ability to throw 200 innings with ease. Brett Myers has offered to close but likely wouldn’t be satisfied with throwing in middle relief.

That leaves Jon Lieber and Adam Eaton. Eaton has also commented that while he would pitch as a reliever he'd rather not. Only Lieber has spent any significant time as a reliever. In 1996 he pitched 36 games for Pittsburgh Pirates in relief with a solid 4.14 ERA. However, that was a long time ago. Two months ago Gillick commented that Lieber couldn’t pitch in relief because his defense was a liability in late inning situations.

Neither pitcher is a good option. However, I think the least bad option is Lieber. If the Phillies let Lieber start and he pitches well, then his trade value will increase. That would allow the Phils to trade Lieber and solve the underlying problem. Eaton can serve as the long man in the bullpen throwing three innings every few days if one of the Phillies starters gets shelled. Five is a rotation and six is a problem that can only be fixed with a trade.

Sources:
Notes: Which starter will relieve?
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Pictures of Adam Eaton from MLB.com

Phils say goodbye to Germano

2007-03-19T22:44:00.000-05:00

The San Diego Padres claimed Justin Germano after the Phillies placed him on waivers today. Germano came over in the Rheal Cormier trade. Usually it’s difficult to determine the benefits of a trade until years after it’s completion. That’s not the case with the Cormier trade, which can safely be called an unmitigated disaster.

It’s not that Pat Gillick should have held on to Rheal Cormier. The timing of the trade makes Gillick look like a genius. With the Phils Cormier had a sparkling 1.59 ERA and pitching for the Reds he had a mediocre 4.50 ERA. The issue with this trade is what the Phightens received in return.

Justin Germano is a fine prospect but at the time of the trade he had only one option left on his contract, which the Phillies used up last season. So this season the Phillies couldn’t send him down to the minors without having him clear waivers first. This forced the Phillies to put Germano on waivers and in the end receive nothing for Cormier.

The Cormier trade is part of a disturbing trend. The Phillies received seven prospects in return for Rheal Cormier, Ryan Franklin, Cory Lidle, and Bobby Abreu in three different trades. Matt Smith is the only player in that group who will play with the Phillies any time soon and none of the others project to be productive major leaguers. The Phillies farm system is baron of prospects because of Gillick. I think Pat had done a great job putting together a competitive Phillies team in 2007. I just hope that the success of the 2007 Phillies doesn’t end up burning the Phillies squads of the future.

Sources:
Germano, Simon among Phillies cuts
By Rob Maaddi / AP

Picture of Justin Germano from milb.com

Phillies Drop Simon

2007-03-18T23:47:00.000-05:00

The Phillies offered back Alfredo Simon to the Texas Rangers. Simon was one of three Rule 5 draft picks trying to make the Phillies roster. The Baltimore Orioles originally drafted Simon and then traded him to the Phillies during the winter meetings. The Phils paid $50,000 dollars for the rights to Simon and the Rangers will give half of that sum back.

Alfredo was a prototypical flamethrower with control issues. Speaking about Simon Charlie Manuel commented, "He wasn't going to make our big-league team. He has a good arm and a good breaking ball, but he has control problems."

Simon was in contention for making the Phillies major league roster. He will now spend more time developing his control at Triple-A Tucson for the Texas Rangers.

Sources:
Notes: Moyer gives back
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Alfredo Simon from MLB.com

Time to get creative

2007-03-18T15:41:00.000-05:00

Despite all of the tough talk of the Phillies taking six starters into the season, Pat Gillick knows he needs to work a trade before the season begins. There should be plenty of demand for what the Phillies have to offer. Almost every team in baseball could use another legit starter on their roster. Still teams don’t want to buy what the Phillies are selling. It’s time for Pat Gillick to sweeten the pot.

The Houston Astros are counting on Roger Clemens to come back and save their rotation. I’m not crazy enough to presume to know if Clemens will play baseball and if he does for what team. Nevertheless if Clemens stays in Houston than the Astros will still have an unproven rookie as their fifth starter. The Astros could really use Jon Lieber to bolster their cause in a division with the World Series Champion Cardinals and a much-improved Chicago Cubs squad.

The Phillies need to make the offer that the Astros can’t refuse by pairing catcher Carlos Ruiz with Jon Lieber. The current Astros catcher Brad Ausms doesn’t have much value if he hits .230 like he did last season. Houston has no good catching prospects and could really use a young backstop with potential upside. Carlos Ruiz has some very solid numbers. In his past two seasons at the AAA level he hit over .300 with both power and speed.

In return the Phillies should ask for much maligned closer Brad Lidge. Two seasons ago Brad Lidge was the best closer in baseball. Last season the Astros yanked him back and forth between the closer and setup roles. Lidge could benefit from the stability of staying in the same role for the whole season. He could also be the hard throwing reliever the Phillies need to get to the next level.

Source:
Picture of Brad Lidge from mcall.com

Helms excelling during spring training

2007-03-16T22:07:00.000-05:00

Wes Helms had many options as a free agent this off-season. The New York Yankees were offering more years and dollars to Helms if he would don the pin stripes. The Phillies could offer the thing that the Yankees couldn’t promise, playing time. Wes Helms will get plenty of at bats with the Phillies as their starting third baseman.

Helms owns a paltry .268 career batting average but had a career year last season hitting .329. Helms attributes his success to a change in his approach at the plate. Helms spoke about those change commenting, "I'd be out there trying to crush the ball, pull the ball. I wouldn't think of the situation. I just wanted to hit the ball hard. Now I'm more of a situational hitter. If there's a guy on second, I'm going to get him over.”

So far this spring Helms has excelled batting .394 with 2 home runs and 7 RBIs in 33 at bats. Helms will bat out of the sixth spot but if Helms starts out 2007 hot and Pat Burrell struggles than he could find himself protecting Ryan Howard in the fifth spot.

Fortunately for Helms the bar has been set very low. Former Phils tri baggers David Bell and Abraham Nunez represented one giant gaping hole in the Phillies offense. Assuming Helms can not stink as much as those two double plays waiting to happen the Phillies offense should improve.

Sources:
Helms getting hits in, relearning third
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Helms confident that a big year is in the offing
By Todd Zolecki / Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Wes Helms from Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

More Rowand Trade Rumors

2007-03-15T21:31:00.000-05:00

Another day and another Aaron Rowand trade rumor. Once again the gossip mill turns with news of a trade negotiations between the Phillies and White Sox. This most recent iteration of trade talks has Aaron Rowand going to the White Sox for Boone Logan. That leads Phillies Phans everywhere to ask the question, “Who the heck is Boone Logan?” That’s a very reasonable question given that Boone Logan has logged only 17.3 innings in the Majors and a 5.08 ERA in his minor league career.

On a radio show Tuesday when asked about a trade to the White Sox Rowand responded, “I don't know if I should disclose any of that information.” That’s quite an ominous comment for a player on the trading block.

This deal could happen if the White Sox were willing to part with a different reliever. White Sox setup man Mike MacDougal would fit nicely into the Phillies bullpen. Before the White Sox traded for MacDougal, he served as the Kansas City closer. MacDougal is a former all-star and the owner of a 3.62 ERA in 199 major league innings.

Assuming the Phils get a reliever in exchange for Rowand then a trade will only move the hole in their roster from the bullpen to the outfield. If Gillick can’t get a proven commodity like MacDougal than he shouldn’t move Rowand. A trade for any thing less than a stud would be a move of desperation.

Sources:
Rowand responds to Sox rumor
From Yahoo Sports

Rowand talk resurfacing
By Joe Cowley / Chicago Sun-Times

Picture of Aaron Rowand from sportsencyclopedia.com

Gordon has Doc check on stiff elbow

2007-03-13T16:09:00.000-05:00

Tom Gordon traveled today from Clearwater to Philadelphia to visit Phillies team doctor Michael Ciccotti. Gordon has been feeling some stiffness in his elbow that the Phillies wanted to check out. The Phils closer was going to pitch today but there was no game scheduled.

The Phillies spin control team is twisting the doctor’s appointment to be completely normal. "It just made sense for him to go up there," commented assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. "We want to check him out. There's nothing alarming about this." Pitching coach Rich Dubee shrugged the news off saying, “We are talking about a guy who's 38, 39 years old…It's been pretty much the same thing; the same kind of stiffness," Dubee said. "His shoulder is fine."

Dubee’s right, stiffness is normal for a pitcher of his age. That’s the problem. Gordon is a great but aging relief pitcher. There doesn’t appear to be a problem yet just reason to be very nervous.

This story underscores why the Phillies need to trade Lieber for a reliever. If one of the Phils starters went on the disabled list everyone would praise Gillick for holding on to Lieber. However, if the Phillies did hold onto Lieber and Gordon injured his elbow than the Phillies would be in a lot of trouble without a closer to stabilize the bullpen.

Sources:
Gordon for Philadelphia for routine exam
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Phillies downplay Gordon’s visit to doc
By Marcus Hayes / Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Tom Gordon from sportsillustrated.com

Why $900K

2007-03-12T15:23:00.000-05:00

The questions that all of Phillies nation has been asking since the Phillies renewed Ryan Howard’s contract is, Why $900K? The most recent Phillies Phan to join in the chorus of decent is author Mark Bowden. Bowden expressed his opinion in this Sunday’s Philadelphia Inquirer in an editorial entitled Pay Up, Phillies. To synopsize the article Bowden believes that the Phillies should have paid Ryan Howard more because he is a great player. He believes the Phillies haven’t shelled out the big buck because of the collective bargaining agreement that governs contracts and poor decisions by the Phillies front office.

I have a few issues with Bowden’s article. The first is the contention that Howard has missed out on years of service time because of Jim Thome. Howard advanced steadily through the minors. In his early professional baseball career he spent one season at Batavia, Lakewood, and Clearwater. In those three seasons he played well but not great. That’s because he was developing, learning, and becoming a better ball player. MVPs don’t grow on trees they take time to grow. After that Howard had one superb season at Reading and Scranton and earned a cup of coffee in the Majors. At this point Howard was ready and he did have to wait behind Jim Thome. Fortunately for the Phillies and for Howard, Thome only played in 59 games for the Phillies that season. In retrospect the 61 games Howard played for Scranton that year wasn’t that long a wait after all.

Second the Phillies did pay Ryan Howard a boatload of money; a boatload of money for a player with two years service time. That $900,000 is the most for any player with one year-plus Major League service time. That $900,000 ties him for the highest salary of a non-arbitration eligible baseball player with Albert Pujols. On top of that even if Howard has a sub par 2007 season he will make a lot of money in arbitration.

Now if I may on behalf of the Phillies organization answer the request in the title of Mark Bowden’s. We did pay him Mark, stick to writing books.

Sources:
Pay Up, Phillies
By Mark Bowden / Philadelphia Inquirer

The $900,000 Man
By Todd Zolecki / Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Ryan Howard from citypaper.net

Madson developing third pitch

2007-03-11T16:09:00.000-05:00

Last year the Phillies experimented letting Ryan Madson pitch in the starting rotation. That didn’t work out so well. This season Madson will return to the pitching in the bullpen, where he excelled in his first two seasons.

In preparation for the upcoming season Mad Dog has been developing his pitching repertoire. Ryan has a solid mid nineties fast ball and a plus change up. Last season Madson mixed in a curveball that he couldn’t consistently through for strikes. So Madson is dropping the curve and looking to add a third out pitch. Earlier in the off-season Madson was rumored to be working on a slurve or sliding curve. Now he’s let go of slurve and is working on a slider.

"It's a brand-new pitch.” Madson said, “The big thing is trusting it. My fastball and changeup have been good, so I'm working a lot on my slider. If I can get it, it will give me something between my fastball and changeup." Mad Dog’s comments aren’t exactly the whole truth. He used to throw a slider when he was in the minors but replaced it with the curve when he got to the majors.

Personally I don’t think he needs the third pitch. Pitching as a reliever is very different from pitching as a starter. A starter may face the same batter two or three times in one game. Starters need to pitch strategically mixing up their pitches to show the batter different looks. Relievers need to get a batter out only once; they don’t need to worry about the next time. For this reason relief pitchers don’t need to throw a wide array of pitches. A good example of this is one of the best relievers the future Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. Rivera throws cutters, cutters, and some times a cutter. He doesn’t need to throw anything else because he can get the job done with one pitch.

Madson dropped the slider the first time because it wasn’t a good pitch. There’s no reason to expect that the slider will be any better the second time. I would suggest that he perfects his fastball and changeup. He doesn’t need a third pitch. In the end two great pitches is better than two great pitches and one bad one.

Sources:
Garcia’s fastball lags as Madson slings slider
By Jim Salisbury / Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Ryan Madson from mlb.com

Burrell complains about contacts

2007-03-10T21:47:00.000-05:00

Last season Pat Burrell struck out a whopping 131 times. What’s more shocking is the number of times he went down on called third strikes. That led to rampant rumors that Burrell wasn’t seeing the ball. This season after a sub par mandatory spring training vision exam a team doctor suggested that contact lenses could help Burrell.

Pat disagrees. "They don't help me," he whined. "They weren't doing anything. I could understand if I went to the trainer and said I'm not seeing stuff, but they don't help."

Observing from afar it seems that Pat’s biggest problem doesn’t involve eyesight but an over sized ego. Its hard to believe that the contacts don’t allow Burrell to see better. If I were a professional athlete I would want to get every legal advantage that I could get. Pat doesn’t see the contact situation or the baseball the same way.

Sources:
Burrell struggles with contacts
By Marcus Hayes / Philadelphia Inquirer

Notes: Burrell wearing contacts
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Pat Burrell from Reading Eagle

Update: Vukovich has passed away

2007-03-07T23:24:00.000-05:00

John Vukovich has passed away after losing his fight with cancer. In 2001 Vuke's doctors found a benign brain tumor, which they removed and treated with radiation therapy. Since then the cancer has lingered and now has returned with a vengeance. According to the Associated Press, “Late last year, Vukovich experienced persistent headaches and other symptoms. He was hospitalized in mid-January, although his family and close friends kept his condition guarded, per his request.”

Vuke started his career with the Phillies in 1966 when they selected him tenth overall. John played for ten seasons with the Phillies, Brewers, and Reds. He was also part of the Phillies 1980 World Championship Team. Vukovich has spent the last 18 years as a manager, coach, and front office executive.

Everyone reading this post send out your positive thoughts and prayers to a fellow Phillie and his loved ones.

Sources:
Brain Tumor has Vuckovich, 59, in grave condition
By the Associated Press

John Vuckovich, 59, longtime Phillies coach, is dead
By the Associated Press

Picture of John Vukovich from the comcastsportnet.com

Phillies will have $95M payroll in ‘07

2007-03-05T17:20:00.000-05:00

Since the Phillies started playing in Citizen Bank Park they have consistently had a payroll around $95M. This season that trend will most likely continue with an opening day payroll of about $95,265,200 (Estimate from Todd Zolecki). That number will go up by the end of the season when the Phils bring up minor leaguers and pay out incentives.

One potential move that could save the Phillies a lot of money would be a Jon Lieber trade. Lieber will make $7.5 million dollars in 2007 and depending on the salary of the player that the Phillies receive in a hypothetical trade they could save a bundle.

Below is a breakdown of the Phillies 2007 payroll from Todd Zolecki. The payroll includes the second of four installments that the Phillies owe to the White Sox to help pay for a portion of Jim Thome’s salary.

Pitchers (12 pitchers worth $48.43 million). Freddy Garcia ($10 million), Adam Eaton ($7.875 million), Jon Lieber ($7.5 million), Tom Gordon ($7 million), Jamie Moyer ($7 million), Brett Myers ($5.25 million), Ryan Madson ($1.1 million), Geoff Geary ($837,500), Antonio Alfonseca ($700,000), Cole Hamels ($400,000), Fabio Castro ($383,000), and Matt Smith ($380,000).

Catchers (two catchers worth $2.88 million). Rod Barajas ($2.5 million) and Carlos Ruiz ($380,000).

Infielders (six infielders worth $20.44 million). Jimmy Rollins ($8 million), Chase Utley ($5.5 million, plus perhaps $1 million of a $2 million signing bonus), Wes Helms ($2.55 million), Abraham Nunez ($2.1 million), Ryan Howard ($900,000), and Chris Coste ($385,000) or Greg Dobbs ($385,000).

Outfielders (five outfielders worth $19.31 million). Pat Burrell ($13 million), Aaron Rowand ($4.35 million), Jayson Werth ($850,000), Karim Garcia ($700,000), and Shane Victorino ($410,000).

Other Jim Thome ($5.5 million).

Sources:
Phillies flirting with $100 million dollar payroll
By Todd Zolecki / Philadelphia Inquirer

Phil’s payroll still in $95M range after big additions and subtractions
By Paul Hagen / Philadelphia Daily News

Picture of Jon Lieber from mlb.com

Burrell starting the spring off right

2007-03-04T15:50:00.000-05:00

One of the hottest topics of debate for the Phillies this off-season has been Pat Burrell. Can he provide protection for Ryan Howard? Can he cut down on the strikeouts? It's still early in spring training but so far there is reason to be optimistic.

Pat the Bat carried a red-hot stick with him to Clearwater. In his past four games (including the exhibition opener against Florida St.) Burrell has gone 5/8 with 2 double and 2 walks. Experienced Phillies Phans recognize that for Pat, 5/8 hot streaks are par for the course.

Despite that history, Burrell looks like a new man so far this spring training. Last season when he would take a pitch Pat would tense up anticipating the Umpire calling the third strike. In Clearwater this spring, Burrell has taken ball four with a confidence that suggests he is ready to fulfill his potential as a player.

Another reason for optimism is Burrell's performance on the base pads. Last season a gimpy Pat Burrell could muster only a swift trot. In Florida, it appears that Burrell's foot injury has finally healed and that he has recovered some of his quickness. In his most recent game against the Yankees Pat went from first to third on a single with ease and stretched a single in to a double.

Burrell will never steal fifty bases in a season but his improved health could potentially help both his confidence and his batting average. They say that the devil is in the details. After a close examination of Pat Burrell it seems his demons have been exorcised.

Sources:
Picture of Pat Burrell from phillyburbs.com

Phils beat tribe

2007-03-02T16:45:00.000-05:00

The Philadelphia Phillies beat the Cleveland Indians, outscoring them 6 to 4. Ryan Howard led the offense knocking a Fausto Carmona offering out of the park and past the Bright House Networks Field fence. The ball eventually landed 15 feet shy of a pond well beyond the park. Pat Burrell contributed with a hit, RBI, run, and walk in three plate appearances. Other notable performances include Abraham Nunez who had 2 RBIs and Shane Victorino who had 2 hits and stolen base.

Brett Myers started and earned the win for the Phillies, throwing 3 innings while giving up four hits and striking out four. The only two runs he gave up came on solo homers by Casey Blake and Kelly Soppach. Justin Germano and JA Happ followed Myers with three perfect innings of work. Madson then pitched the seventh giving up two runs on a home run. Jim Crowell followed Madson holding the game in place and Antonio Alfonseca notched the save securing the Phils victory.

The Phillies will play the Boston Red Sox tomorrow at City of Palms Park. Adam Eaton will start the game for the Phillies.

Sources:
Box Score from MLB.com

Howard had a blast with first homer
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Brett Myers form tsn.ca

Phils reach deal with Howard

2007-03-02T15:43:00.000-05:00

The Phillies have decided to pay Ryan Howard $900,000 in 2007. That’s a nice $545,000 raise from the $355,000 he made in ‘06. Howard won’t be a free agent until after the 2011 season, but that hasn’t stopped the negotiations for a phat Chase Utley like extension for Howard.

Assistant general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. spoke about the contract discussions commenting, "We discussed a variety of things. It is our goal to keep our star players in pinstripes and we're going to work to that end. We didn't get to the finish line on this, but we'll have continued talks on this one."

While Howard’s 2007 salary may seem like an insult, the Phillies actually put him in exceptional company. Howard $900,000 pay check is more than any other player has made with only two years of service time, except for Albert Pujols who also made $900K in 2003.

Howard had a monster season last year. We all know about 58 and 149, but even more impressive are the 108 walks, the .425 OBP, and the 1.084 OPS. Howard hasn't showed any signs of slowing down. Today he hit his first home run of the spring in his second plate Grape Fruit League appearance.

Sources:
Howard has a blast with first homer
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Phillies renew Howard’s contract
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Ryan Howard from ESPN.com

Phils fall in first Grapefruit League game

2007-03-01T20:24:00.000-05:00

The Phillies dropped their first non-exhibition game of the spring scoring only 7 runs to the Detroit Tigers 9. Greg Dobbs had a big game going 3 for 4, including a two-run dinger off of Tiger’s pitcher Dennis Tankersly. Potential bench players Randall Simon and Karim Garcia also contributed with RBI singles.

Jamie Moyer pitched well through two innings but was knocked out in the third after a Gary Sheffield bomb. Fabio Castro relieved Moyer, throwing 3 scoreless innings with 2 strikeouts and no walks. Anderson Garcia, Brian Sanches, and Clay Condrey each threw one inning.

The Phillies were done in by three fielding errors. Wes Helms, Brent Abernathy, and Danny each had a defensive slip showing the rust of spring.

Sources:
Dobbs goes deep but Phillies fall
By Jason Beck / MLB.com

Crybaby Marlins

2007-02-28T21:44:00.000-05:00

This week we learned that former Marlins manager Joe Girardi offered some helpful words to Phillies pitcher Jon Lieber. Girardi placed the call to Lieber after the Marlins had knocked him out a game, scoring 9 runs in 4.2 innings. Lieber who was teammates with Girardi when they were both Cubs credits the advice with turning around his season. "He just mentioned that the hitters said everything that was coming in was just very flat," Lieber told the Daily News last week. "I wasn't on top of the ball like I should have been."

Marlins GM Larry Beinfest hasn’t commented officially but according to the AP a team official commented that the front office was angry. The AP honored the official’s request for anonymity because Beinfest wouldn't comment.

Honestly, I don’t really feel for the Marlins. I prefer not to stoop to name-calling but I’ll make a exception for Beinfest and Marlins owner Jeffery Loria. These guys are so idiotic that they fired the NL manager of the year. Girardi did a fantastic job with the Marlins last season taking a rag tag squad of rookies and turning them into a respectable baseball team.

Girardi’s relationship with the Marlins took a turn for the worst when Girardi asked Loria to stop yelling at umpires during games. For Girardi’s prudence he was rewarded with a pink slip. Now the Marlins are upset because Girardi told Lieber that his stuff was flat and helped a buddy get his mind straight. Where’s the harm in that? The only thing that the Marlins get to be angry about was that they were so stupid to fire such a talented manager.

Sources:
Marlins unhappy Lieber got help
By AP

Girardi downplays reported rift with Marlins owner
By ESPN News Services

Picture of Girardi from ESPN Deportes

Breaking down the NL East: Atlanta Braves

2007-02-26T21:47:00.000-05:00

This will be the first in a series of articles reviewing the off seasons of the Phillies National League East rivals. The first team up is the Atlanta Braves. This off-season Bravos GM John Schuerholz had another active winter in an effort to start another streak of division titles.

Position Players:
Edgar Renteria and Chipper Jones will anchor the left side of the Braves infield and bat second and third respectively. Behind the backstop, Brian McCann will call the balls and strikes. First and second base are a bit of a question mark. After the departure of Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche the Braves are left with prospects Martin Prado and Scott Thorman. In the outfield Andruw Jones will patrol center centerfield with Jeff Francoeur playing in right. The Braves will platoon Ryan Langerhans and Craig Wilson in left field. The Braves should have a good defense between Renteria, Francoeur, and the Jones’s. Andruw Jones who is in a contract year looks poised to have another monster season. It also seems unlikely that Jeff Francoeur can have another good season if he keeps striking out at such a high rate. The strength of the Braves offense will depend on the success of rookies Prado and Thorman.

Starting Rotation:
After the always-dependable John Smoltz, the Braves have a few question marks in their rotation. Mike Hampton will look to bounce back from injury plagued last season. Tim Hudson will also look to rebound from pitching really poorly. The Braves will also look for Chuck James to continue his development and hope Kyle Davies can live up to his potential. The starting rotation is the weak link in the Braves chain.

Bullpen:
The Braves bullpen was pathetic last season. This year it should be much improved. Veteran Bob Wickman will close out games. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez who both arrived in trades this off-season, will serve in late inning roles for the Bravos.

Prediction:
In 2007 Atlanta will go as their starting pitchers and young players go. If Hampton, Hudson, and James pitch well and their youngsters play okay, then the Braves will be in competition for another NL East title. The Phans Blog official prediction is that the Atlanta Braves will finish second in the NL East with 86 wins.

Sources:
Picture of Andruw Jones from decaturdaily.com

Barajas adjusting to life as a Phillie

2007-02-25T18:46:00.000-05:00

Rod Barajas is one of many new Phillies that Pat Gillick added this off-season. However, Barajas who is in competition to be the starting catcher has the most difficult job of any of the new additions. Not only does he need to work on his hitting and fielding this off-season, Rod will have to learn the strengths and weaknesses of the Phillies pitchers.

Each Phillies pitcher is a different story. The battle-tested veteran Jamie Moyer chooses what pitches he throws. Barajas is already familiar with Adam Eaton because they were teammates while playing with the Texas Rangers. Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, and Freddy Garcia like to work more with their catchers so Barajas will have to study the skills and habits of these pitchers.

Barajas takes a sensible approach to the pitcher catcher relationship. "These guys are different pitchers," Barajas said. "I'm definitely going to have to learn each guy's strengths and weaknesses. What might work for Cole might not work for Jamie. It's a learning process, and that's where I'm going to rely on my teammates and coaches and try to speed up that process. It's about building relationships." Barajas a veteran catcher has made the transition before when switching teams and is looking forward to opening day.

Sources:
Barajas getting crash course
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Rod Barajas from Phillies.com

The Phils need for speed

2007-02-24T19:40:00.000-05:00

Last season the Phillies stole 92 bases placing them in the middle of the Major League pack. This season the Phillies want to improve on that number. It’s not a question of talent or raw velocity. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino both have blazing quickness. Despite having a nice set of wheels neither Rollins nor Victorino are living up to their base stealing potential.

Pat Gillick recognizing the Phillies need for speed hired first base coach Davey Lopes in the off-season to help out the Phillies. Lopes knows what he is preaching because of the 557 stolen bases he swiped in his 16 year Major League career. Lopes is focusing on the mental aspects of stealing, trying to build up the confidence of the Phils base stealers. Speaking about his base pilfering philosophy Lopes commented, “You can't have fear. You have fear, you're dead."

Shane Victorino who twice stole forty bases in a season during his time in the minors thinks he’s lost his base-stealing strut. Victorino who may be the fastest Phillie on the 25 man roster theorized, “It's confidence, I think, that I've lost," Victorino said. "Getting me back to that swagger where I say, 'I'm going. Right here.' There are a lot of big expectations for me this year. I'm going to get it back, right here, in spring training." With Lopes’ help the top of the Phillies lineup will be ready set fire to the base pads in the 2007.

Sources:
Phillies Lopes’ lead on how to steal bases
By Marcus Hayes / Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Shane Victorino from sportillustrated.com

The problem with mainstream media

2007-02-23T10:55:00.001-05:00

I love Sports Center as much as the next guy but I have a big problem with the way that big media covers the Phillies. Stories have been popping up left and right describing Jimmy Rollins premonitions about how well the Phillies will do this season and the Mets response to his comments. Don’t get me wrong I agree with everything Jimmy has said. I just don’t think that his words merit coverage.

I am glad that after the departure of Bobby Abreu and Mike Liberthal that Rollins has stepped into a leadership role. I think it’s great that he is trying to kick the Phillies buts into gear. But, doesn’t he see his teammates on a regular basis? Couldn’t he motivate them even better in person. There are so many interesting story lines that the major media has not given enough coverage. The Geoff Geary signing received one AP story. That’s it. Geary is one of the best relievers in the NL and will play a huge role in the Phillies success next season and he gets one story.

But I guess everyone wants to know what Tom Glavine thinks about Jimmy Rollins comments. Surprise! He thinks the Mets are the team to beat. What a compelling story.

Sources:
Notes: Rivalry heats up
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Jimmy Rollins from phillyburbs.com

Will Flash lose his flare?

2007-02-21T23:24:00.000-05:00

Last season after a wild series in Cincinnati, Phillies closer Tom Gordon went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain. After that Charlie Manuel was able to patch together a few games, but in the end the extra work broke the bullpen. It wasn’t until Gordon came back that the bullpen returned to its previous success. Last season's bullpen collapse explicates why having a dependable closer is crucial to any team's success. This year Tom Gordon is one year older and the fear is that he will visit the disabled list again at some point this season.

Gordon’s statistics were very good last season. He stuck out 68 in 59.1 innings with a 3.34 ERA while holding his opponents to a .233 average. His numbers look even better if you leave out the first part of August when he posted an awful 9.64 ERA.

This season Manuel will use Gordon carefully in an effort to help keep him off the DL. Manuel spoke about Gordon commenting, "I want to keep him strong so he can go all year. I think he can go three days [in a row]. Sometimes, even with two days out, depending on the number of pitches he threw in those two outings, maybe [I might] let someone else throw that third day. With a four-run lead, we might let someone else start the inning."

Manuel’s comments reflect a reasonable degree of prudence. However, Charlie will have to balance overworking Gordon with letting him pitch enough to stay in a rhythm. Gordon himself says that his arm feels great; not that he would say anything if his arm was about to fall off. So will 2007 be the season Flash loses his flare? Only time will tell.

Sources:
Gordon enter '07 feeling great
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Gordon is key to Philadelphia's success
By AP

Picture of Tom Gordon from sportsnetwork.com

Nunez wants to stay in the hot corner

2007-02-20T22:34:00.000-05:00

Way back in November the Phillies started their off-season by signing third baseman Wes Helms. At the time it was expected that Helms would be the Phillies third baseman on opening day. There’s only one problem. Abraham Nunez isn’t ready to give up his job quite yet.

Nunez played poorly last season and that’s putting it nicely. Nunez hit a pathetic .211 with a .303 on base percentage. After struggling early in the season as a pinch hitter and bench player. He then saw increased playing time after David Bell was traded to the Brewers. Nunez played better with regular at bats hitting .242.

Nunez isn’t going to go without a fight. Nunez pledged, "It's not going down like last year. You're going to see a difference. You'll see. You'll see."

Nunez did play well this off-season in his native Dominican Republic. Playing for the Leones del Escogido he hit .268 with a .391 on base percentage. If he wants to keep his job he will have to play well in spring training. One advantage for Nunez is his far superior defense. Despite that it isn’t likely that Nunez will remain the Phillies everyday third baseman.

One big problem for Nunez is that he has no power. The Phillies need the right handed thump in their lineup that Helms can provide. If Nunez can elevate his game hitting around .290 with an OBP around .400 with solid defense than he could do a lot to help the Phillies cause and stay in the hot corner.

Sources:
Nunez determined to keep starting third-base job
By Marcus Hayes / Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Abraham Nunez from MLB.com

The road to the Majors

2007-02-18T18:20:00.000-05:00

The path to the Major Leagues is long and winding. Just ask Chris Coste. He spent the first eleven years of his professional baseball career with Minor League baseball clubs all across the country. After clawing his way up to the AAA level he earned an invitation to spring training last season. In Clearwater, Chris caught fire batting .463 with 3 home runs and 11 RBIs in 41 at bats. It appeared that Coste’s dreams would soon be realized. Then disaster, the Phillies traded for David Dellucci who took the Phillies final roster spot. Serendipitously two months later utility infielder Alex Gonzalez retired opening up the road to the Majors for Coste.

Coste will still have to work for his roster spot. In the off-season the Phillies signed catcher Rod Barajas to start in front of Carlos Ruiz. Then the Phillies claimed Gregg Dobbs from the Seattle Mariners, leaving Coste once again in a fight for a roster spot.

Coste understands what is at stake. He commented to Todd Zolecki, "It's more exciting being here this year, but at the same time there are more nerves because there is so much more to lose. Every year I'd come here at ground zero. I could only go up. Now I can really only go down.”

I’m a bit biased when it comes to Coste. If I were GM, Coste would form half of a catching platoon with Ruiz and Rod Barajas wouldn’t be a Phillie. Coste is a professional hitter and to borrow a phrase from MLB statistics guru Cory Schwartz, “hitters hit”. It’s no coincidence that the Phillies lineup got hot when Coste got called up last season. His bat at the end of the line up turned the Phils offense from potent to lethal. Pat Gillick’s goal should be to assemble the roster with the greatest amount of talent. If he wants to achieve that goal he needs to give Coste a shot.

Sources:
Coste counting on another super spring
By Todd Zolecki / Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Chris Coste from cord.edu

Phillies emphasizing hitting to starters

2007-02-17T18:38:00.000-05:00

Last season the Phillies had the National League's best offense knocking in 865 runs. This season the Phillies hope to improve on that number. Charlie Manuel isn't worried about Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, or any of the position players; he knows those guys can rake. The concern is how poorly Phillies pitchers hit last season.

Last season the Phillies pitchers had the worst batting average in baseball hitting an impressively awful .092. They finished second to last in sacrifices laying down only 29 successful bunts.

You might now be asking the question, “Who cares?” It’s true that a bunt has never caused Citizen’s Bank Park to erupt with applause, but pitcher hitting is very important. Consider that every time Brett Myers sacrifices Rod Barajas over to second, it gives Jimmy Rollins a chance to knock another run for the Phillies. Over a season that can add up. In addition, if the Phillies pitchers could improve from terrible to mediocre, then Charlie Manuel could keep his pitchers deeper into games instead of having to pinch hit.

Manuel recognizes that pitcher bunting has been a weakness, lamenting, "The whole object of the guys pitching is to move the guy over into scoring position. He can stay longer in the game and it gives you a chance of winning, too. I think that we have lagged in that department, because the workload has been very big and we didn't push it a lot. I think the more we can concentrate on it, the better off we'll be."

The job of turning the Phils hurlers into a group of offensive juggernauts has fallen to new Philllies bench coach Jimy Williams. Williams is a veteran’s veteran who brings to the Phillies a veritable encyclopedia of baseball knowledge. If the Phills hurlers are smart they will listen to Williams and bring the offense to a new level.

Sources:
Williams put to early test
By Michael Radano / Courier-Post

Notes: Hurlers working on bunting skills
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Jimy Williams from usatoday.com

Switching up the batting order

2007-02-14T14:59:00.000-05:00

It’s hard to criticize the offense, which led the NL in runs in 2006. But, if a weakness does exists it lies at the feet of the Phillies lead off hitter Jimmy Rollins. Fans opinions of Rollins vacillate up and down with his performance. When Rollins is chasing DiMaggio he’s a great player and when he starts flying out like there’s a bonus for not putting the ball on the ground angry Philadelphians pick him apart. As usual the truth is somewhere in the middle. Rollins is a great player but not a great lead off hitter.

There are only two things a team needs from there first hitter. They need him to get on base at a proficient rate and enough speed to steal a base. The swift Rollins stole 36 bases but had a lack luster .334 on base percentage. Supporters of Rollins often bring up that the most important statistic for a lead off hitter is runs. I couldn’t disagree more. The Phillies could have a very mediocre lead off hitter score 100 runs because he’s batting in front of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell.

Bill Conlin had a creative idea writing recently that Rollins should bat in the fifth spot protecting Ryan Howard. He argues that Rollins has enough power to serve as a power bat in the middle of the order. Rollins did hit an impressive 79 extra base hits, which was tied for ninth best in the Major Leagues last season. Despite the power, I think Rollins could best help the Phillies hitting out of the two spot. Rollins 2006 power numbers would decline if he moved to the number five spot. The leadoff hitter accumulates about 150 more at bats than the hitter in the fifth spot over the course of a season. If Rollins hit later in the line up he would have less opportunities to get hits. In the two spot his power and speed would serve the Phillies offense very well.

If Rollins moved to another spot in the order, Shane “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” Victorino is the obvious choice for the job. Victorino has spent most of his professional baseball career as a leadoff hitter and knows what it takes. Last season the Flyin’ Hawaiian’s speed, which he showed throughout his minor league career disappeared. However, Victorino has commented that working with former speedster and now Phillies coach Davey Lopes will help break him out of his slump.

Every once in a while to prevent an offense from going stale it’s often a good idea to shuffle the lineup. Flipping Rollins and Victorino could help the Phillies keep the spice in their offense.

Sources:
Calling the Phils line up to order
By Bill Conlin / Philadelphia Daily News

First picture of Jimmy Rollins from ESPN.com, and second picture of Shane Victorino from TSN.ca

Geary avoids arbitration

2007-02-14T01:45:00.000-05:00

Phillies reliever Geoff Geary avoided arbitration agreeing to one-year $837,500 contract. Geary was a workhorse-pitcher out of the bullpen for the Phillies last season. Geoff will figure prominently into the Phillies bullpen in 2007. If the Phillies don’t trade for a set-up man then Geary is one potential candidate for the job. If not he will pitch in critical late inning situations.
I’m a huge Geoff Geary fan. Every season he spends in the majors, he gets better. Geary had a tough start to the season but after that pitched great. He took it to a whole different level in the second half of the season. Geary who has a high career opponents batting average .279, began to mow down opposing batters lowering their average in the second half to .239. The improvement between the first and second half is astounding. Geary’s K/BB ratio went from 2.30 up to 4.70, WHIP dropped from 1.62 to 1.03, and average pitches per inning dropped from 17.10 to 14.90.

Geary amazingly pitched in half of the Phillies 162 games last season throwing 91.1 innings. Geary pitched so much last season that towards the end of the 2006 campaign he commented, “It feels like my arm is going to fall off. But when the [bullpen] phone rings, I don’t feel anything.” He deserves every dollar the Phillies pay him and should have a great 2007 season.

Sources:
Geary agrees to 1-year deal with Phillies
By AP from Yahoo.com

Notes Geary pitching through pain
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Geoff Geary from BBC.com

Pressure on Manuel and Phillies to win

2007-02-13T21:47:00.000-05:00

Last season after a June swoon when the Phillies went 9-18, the rumors that Charlie Manuel was about to get a pink slip picked up steam. At the time Pat Gillick put an end to those rumors repeating many times that Manuel would be the Phillies manager for the remainder of the 2006 season. With the arrival of 2007 comes a new season filled with a new set up expectations for the Phillies and Manuel.

I have mixed feelings about Manuel. I don’t think he was hired for the right reasons. Before he was the Phillies manager Manuel was a special assistant to then GM Ed Wade. I can’t say for sure but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wade had chosen Manuel to be the Phillies manager the moment Manuel he became a special assistant. The other reason, which Wade told the public was that Manuel’s player friendly approach was exactly what the Phillies needed in the wake of the Larry Bowa’s harsh managing style. However, the problem with Bowa wasn’t the way he managed, it was that he couldn’t motivate the Phillies to win.

The switch to Manuel raised the Phillies spirits, but not their win total. Despite that Manuel has had a big impact on this team. It’s hard to imagine the Phillies making the late run they did last season without Manuel keeping the Phillies heads in the game.

Manuel's contract is up after this season and Gillick probably has him on a short leash. Gillick sent Manuel a message this off-season when he brought in bench coach Jimy Williams and first base coach Davey Lopes. Both coaches have Major League managing experience and could be potential replacements. If the Phillies play poorly in April don’t be surprised if Manuel is looking for a new job.

Sources:
Eager to show his Phillies are good
By Jim Salisbury / Philadelphia Inquirer

Reports: Manuel to manage Phils
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Charlie Manuel from Flickr

The rumor mill keeps on turning

2007-02-12T17:18:00.000-05:00

On the eve of pitchers and catchers reporting to Clearwater, the hot stove is still cooking in Philly. Both Aaron Rowand and Jon Lieber have continued to be mentioned in trade talks throughout the season. The Freddy Garcia trade gave the Phillies an extra starting pitcher, placing Jon Lieber squarely on trade block. The Phillies biggest need is in the bullpen and it was widely speculated that the Phillies would flip Lieber for a setup-man. Lieber is still a Phillie and Pat Gillick has commented in the past he won’t trade Lieber unless he thinks he’s getting value in return.

It still looks like a trade will happen. There are many teams looking to trade for starting pitching. However, there aren’t many teams who have enough depth in the bullpen to trade the quality of reliever the Phillies need. One possible solution to the Phillies relieving woes is Aaron Rowand. Rowand is a valuable player because of his golden glove, steady bat, and experience as a leader. Todd Zolecki brought up in his interview with the Phans blog that Gillick is an extremely creative GM and could orchestrate two trades. The first trade would send Rowand for a reliever and the second would move Lieber for a corner outfielder. Shane Victorino would then move from right to center field.

Ironically, every day that Lieber stays a Phillie the more likely it becomes the Phillies will trade him. Todd Zolecki also mentioned that other teams will lose starting pitchers and will feel pressure to make a trade for a starter. The injury parade started today when it was announced the Orioles Kris Benson has a torn rotator cuff and will miss the entire season recovering from the surgery. The Orioles signed a number of quality relievers this off-season including Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, and Chad Bradford. Perhaps Gillick could pry one of these relievers away for either Lieber or Rowand. If not, every day that passes ratchets up the pressure for GMs to improve their teams and make a move.

Sources:
Ben Palmer's Sports Rumors and Notes

First picture of Aaron Rowand form MLB.com

Interview with Todd Zolecki

2007-02-09T16:06:00.000-05:00

Below is the paraphrased transcript of The Phans Blog interview with Todd Zolecki. Todd Zolecki has been with the Philadelphia Inquirer since 1999 and has covered the team for the past five seasons. I would like to thank him again for taking the time to do the interview.

The Phans Blog (TPB): Do you think Jon Lieber will be a Phillie on opening day?

Todd Zolecki (TZ): I would be very, very surprised if he would still be on the team. Pat Gillick has commented that there is a chance they take six starting pitchers into the season but I don’t think it will happen. As spring training goes on another team will probably lose a starting pitcher to injury or find that their fourth or fifth starter isn’t working out. Lieber would probably stay with the Phillies if one of their starters were injured in spring training. Pat Gillick is very creative and could find a two-team trade involving Aaron Rowand that would net the set-up man the Phillies need, but that’s just a guess.

TPB: What kind of stats do you think Pat Burrell puts up next season?

TZ: Burrell’s numbers have gone up and down, but he could have a good year. Last season he hit almost a hundred RBI’s with one hundred fewer plate appearances than the season before when he was second in the NL in that category. If healthy there is no reason he can’t hit 30 home runs with 100 plus RBI’s.

TPB: Do you think the foot is an issue?

TZ: No. It’s hard to tell because when they tried to trade him last season they told teams the foot was fine but when he struggled the foot was listed as a reason.

TPB: Who do you think has an inside track at the final outfielders spot?

TZ: Karim Garcia is probably the guy because he’s the left-handed bat the Phillies need off the bench. The Phillies believe Chris Roberson and Michael Bourn need more time to develop as hitters in the minors.

TPB: Do you think Dobbs has the advantage over Coste for the final spot because he is also a left-handed bat?

TZ: Gillick likes Dobbs and Dobbs has a very real chance to make the team. But Coste has a good chance, too. I know Manuel really likes him. The final two bench jobs should be a battle between Garcia, Dobbs and Coste.

TPB: How many wins do the Phillies get in 07?

TZ: If the rotation stays healthy and Gillick gets a set-up man they should win at least 90 games. The offense will be fine. I don’t think Pat Burrell should be an issue. The rotation is one of the best in the league so the team should win at least 90 games and make the playoffs.

Sources:
Picture of Todd Zolecki from philly.com

Phillies look to start off hot

2007-02-07T22:44:00.000-05:00

There’s an old saying in baseball you can’t win a pennant in April but you can lose one. The Phillies are proof of that old adage. The Phils have been in contention until the final days of the season for the past two years. Both this season and last season the Phils have tripped out of the gate with back to back 10-14 April’s. This season the Phillies hope to get the season started off right.

One of the reasons the Phillies have stumbled in the early going is Jimmy Rollins. Rollins is the engine that makes the Phillies offense go. When he stalls the Phillies offenses slows to a snails pace. Over the past two seasons in March and April, Rollins has hit .262. Rollins who doesn’t walk, needs to have a high batting average to get on base. This off-season Jimmy spoke out saying that he thinks the Phillies are a contender in the NL East. I hope he’s serious because next season Rollins performance at the start of the season could have big time implications for the Phillies overall success in 2007.

Another factor in the Phillies poor starts has been terrible starting pitching. In 2005 Cory Lidle, Randy Wolf, and Vincente Padilla threw up a 6.50 ERA in March and April. In 2006 Gavin Floyd, Ryan Madson, Cory Lidle, and Jon Lieber combined to pitch a 6.34 ERA in March and April. This season the Phillies starting rotation is much stronger than in past seasons and appear poised to start off the season strong.

"We know we have to start better," said manager Charlie Manuel, "We know how to focus and come out strong, but we still have to execute and do it."

History tells us that baseball in March and April matters. That will be especially true this season because the Phillies start off their season with 20 of their first 26 games against divisional opponents. If this season is going to be the year when the Phillies make the playoffs they have to reverse the slow start trend and play well from the beginning.

Sources:
Phils look to start hot
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Jimmy Rollins from scout.com

So fresh and so clean

2007-02-06T22:14:00.000-05:00

A clean looking Brett Myers showed up at the press conference to officially announce his $25.75 million contract extension. Myers slimmed down over the off-season due to a new diet and conditioning program. Myers who at the end of last season weighed 250 says that he has lost 32 pounds in the off-season. Myers commented that, “[he] surpassed what [he] was shooting for" in terms of weight lose. The lack of baggage will aid Myers in his attempt to step into the role of Phillies ace. His commitment to the workout plan also shows that he has become a more mature player with renewed dedication to baseball.

Myers also seemed to have turned a corner when discussing the incident with his wife. After hitting his wife in Boston, Brett was arrested for assault and then took time off from the team. Speaking about the incident a sober Myers commented, "I felt terrible for the organization and my family that it had to come about. It was one of those things where everybody makes mistakes and we learn from them. These mistakes can never happen again."

Myers lead the team last season in strikeouts (189), innings (198), and ERA (3.91). Now Phillies fans expect Myers to fulfill his potential as a starting pitcher. Now his new fresh and clean look shows that he maybe be ready to make the jump.

Sources:
Myers gets in better shape after signing big contract
Associated Press

A more mature Myers meets media
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Picture of Brett Myers from ESPN.com

Year of the Mad Dog

2007-02-05T22:34:00.000-05:00

Ryan “Mad Dog” Madson’s 2006 baseball season started out with great promise. Mad Dog arrived at spring training in Clear Water and pitched so well the Phillies gave him a spot in the starting rotation. At spring training Madson started 5 games throwing 24 innings with a slim 1.50 ERA and 18 Ks to only 5 BBs. The regular season was nothing like Clearwater. Madson stunk up the 17 games he started, throwing up an awful 6.28 ERA. Madson started to overthrow his pitches in his zeal to dazzle fans. He lost his control and started to give up more hits and walk to batters than in past seasons.

Before 2006 Madson had shown great potential in previous campaigns. Over the course of his first two seasons several important pitching indicators trended in a positive direction for Madson. His K/B ratio and K/9 both improved. Another positive sign was the dip of pitches per innings in Madson’s performance as a reliever this past season.

I predict 2007 will be the year of the Mad Dog. Madson has the benefit of knowing he his role on the team as one of the Phillies primary relievers. That will allow him to focus his attention on preparing as a reliever and not worry about pitching as a starter. Madson is also reportedly adding a “slurve” or sweeping curve to his pitching repertoire. 2007 will be the year Mad Dog shakes off his slump and lives up to his potential as an ace reliever.

Sources:
Phillies Team Report
By Ken Mandel / Sporting News

Picture of Ryan Madson from washingtonpost.com

The state of the pen

2007-02-04T21:26:00.000-05:00

Question marks cover the Phillies bullpen going into spring training. Pat Gillick has assembled a number of puzzle pieces but the general picture is still unclear. The Phillies reliever corps is the biggest weakness of an otherwise very strong team. Relief pitchers always want to know what role they have on the team. Unfortunately for the Phillies relievers, many of them don’t have clearly defined jobs.

Here’s what we know. Tom Gordon, Geoff Geary, Ryan Madson, and Matt Smith have spots on the Phillies roster. Tom Gordon will finish games as the closer and Matt Smith will face lefties as the Phillies southpaw specialist. After that things get cloudy.

One factor contributing to the Phils relieving quandary is the health of Antonio Alfonseca. Alfonseca will pitch; the question is in what situations. A former closer Alfonseca could be the ace reliever the Phillies need to pitch in the eighth inning. Alfonseca has also been plagued by injuries the past two seasons and could potentially not even make the Phillies roster out of spring training.

There are also a number of potential trades that could mix up the Phillies roster. Aaron Rowand and Jon Lieber have both been mentioned in trade talks for relief pitchers. Lieber will probably be traded eventually even if he remains a Phillie on opening day. If a trade does go through the Phillies would presumably receive a blue chip reliever in return who would serve as the setup man. If he weren’t traded then Lieber would start and push Adam Eaton from the Phillies rotation to the bullpen.

Assuming Eaton starts the season in the pen then the Phillies will have one bullpen spot remaining. Fabio Castro, Eude Brito, Anderson Garcia, Jim Ed Warden, Alfredo Simon, and Joseph Bisenius are all in competition for that final roster slot. Another possibility is free agent reliever Dustin Hermanson. The former White Sox closer will work out for a number of teams this week including the Phillies. Hermanson has had injury issues missing most of last season. The Phillies could benefit from taking a flyer on Hermanson if healthy.

Going into spring training with a smoky picture of their bullpen could end up benefiting the Phillies in the long run. The open competition will force the Phils pitchers to give their all during spring training. That would give Pat Gillick and Charlie Manuel a clearer picture of which pitchers they can count on during the season.

Sources:
Waiting for that other game, here are XLI tidbits
By Jim Salisbury / Philadelphia Inquirer

First picture of Tom Gordon form MLB.com, and second picture of Dustin Hermanson from sportsencyclopedia.com

Myers Signs Extension

2007-02-02T10:45:00.000-05:00

The Phillies signed arbitration eligible pitcher Brett Myers to a 3-year extension yesterday. The deal is worth 25.75 million dollars. Myers will make $5 million this season, $8.5 million in 2008, and $25 million in 2009.

Myers had a great season last year. The one spot on his season was an incident in Boston where he allegedly hit his wife. The issue was resolved out of court after Brett and his wife started to work out their problems. I am Brett Myers fan but I hope the Phillies were confident that Myers has dealt with his anger issues before they offered this contract. There's no room on the Phillies for players of questionable moral character.

On a happier note, Myers has been the Phillies best starting pitcher for the past two seasons. Over the past two seasons Myers pitched 413.1 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 397 strikeouts. This season Myers will lead a strong rotation himself, Freddy Garcia, Cole Hamels, Adam Eaton, and Jamie Moyer.

Sources:
Myers given three-year extension
By Ken Mandel / MLB.com

Phils, Myers agree to $25.75M, three-year deal
Associated Press on ESPN.com

Picture of Brett Myers from scout.com

Rowand trade falls apart

2007-02-01T00:03:00.000-05:00

The San Diego Union-Tribune is reporting that a trade involving Aaron Rowand and Scott Linebrink won’t go through for now. The fact that trade negotiations took place hadn’t actually been confirmed until Padres GM Kevin Towers announced the trade had been tabled.

The deal isn’t dead yet. Towers commented that, “It might be something we discuss again later this spring. But right now I want to see what we have in spring training. I want to see how (outfielder) Terrmel Sledge plays and how our bullpen shapes up.”

If the deal went through Linebrink would be the missing piece in the Phillies bullpen. Over his career Linebrink has compiled some impressive statistics pitching in 313 games with a 3.12 ERA. 2006 was a sub par for Linebrink who saw his opponents batting average jump about .030 from his career average. However, his other numbers including K/BB and K/9 stayed solid. The Phillies might be able to benefit in a trade from the perception that Linebrink is in decline. Linebrink a battle-tested reliever would serve as a fine set up man to Tom Gordon and could pitch in save situations if necessary. His presence would solidify what would be a very good bullpen.

This potential future deal presents some interesting scenarios for the Phillies. If Rowand left Philadelphia, Victorino would move from right to center and the Phillies would be a man down in the outfield. The Phillies like what current bench player Jayson Werth has to offer but don’t consider him a starter and the free agent market by this point of the off-season no longer has valuable players.

The Phillies still have trade chip Jon Lieber. There are several teams with poor starting pitching depth and available corner outfielders. One possible option is Kevin Mench who has been mentioned in trade talks with the Phillies in the past. Another possible trade could involve the Pirates and Xavier Nady. Both aren’t great options and would require the Phillies hypothetical trade partner to sweeten the pot with a prospect to get the deal done.

A Rowand for Linebrink swap could benefit the Phillies, but hopefully Pat Gillick will make sure they have a Lieber trade finished before they made their move. A Rowand trade by itself doesn’t really help the Phillies. It just moves the Phillies hole in their bullpen to their outfield.

Sources:
Linebrink-Rowand deal off for now
From San Diego Union-Tribune

Picture of Scott Linebrink from sportsillustrated.com

Pat Gillick Speaks

2007-01-31T21:20:00.000-05:00

Below is a link to a recording of a conversation between Inquirer sports writers and Phillies GM Pat Gillick. Some of the topics of discussion include Chase Utley’s new contract, Pat Burrell’s foot, and Gillick’s opinion of the Phillies chances in the up coming season. If you can’t download the mp3 click the link for the original Inquirer article.
Gillick Conversation mp3

Sources:
Gillick optimistic about new season
From Philadelphia Inquirer

Picture of Pat Gillick from wikipedia.org

Come home Curt!

2007-01-30T00:02:00.000-05:00

I remember the exact moment it happened like it was yesterday. I was in Cooperstown New York as a camper on a Lake Owego sleep over camp field trip. My friends and I walked up and down the streets gawking at the different pieces of baseball memorabilia. I had just come back from the Hall of Fame and was walking into one last collectable shop before we climbed back onto the buses to go back to camp. My friend was eyeing a Curt Schilling baseball card and the owner of the store told us the horrible news. “Hey kid did you hear that the Phils traded Schilling to the D-Backs, ” the shopkeeper exclaimed. My jaw just hung in my mouth. Having spent the last month away from home I hadn’t heard the rumors. I couldn’t believe it. The Phillies had traded away the hero of the 1993 World Series Team.

Later I would learn about the bickering between former Phils GM Ed Wade and Curt Schilling. Schilling eventually became so upset with management that he demanded a trade. He felt that since their success in 1993 the Phillies were no longer committed to winning. In fairness to Wade I don’t think the Phillies low win tallies were for lack of trying. The Phillies couldn’t win because Ed Wade was a terrible General Manager. If he was any good he never would have gotten into a public war of words with Schilling or allow the same thing to happen to Scott Rolen a few seasons later.

When Schilling left Philadelphia he had nothing but good things to say. "I will leave here with nothing but the best memories on and off the field," said Schilling during the news conference when the trade was announced. Since the trade he has often commented that would look favorably upon returning to Philadelphia.

Curt is still under contract with the Red Sox, but will be a free agent after this season. He also recently announced that he plans to play baseball in 2008. So let this blog post be the beginning of the official courtship of Curt Schilling. The 2008 season may seem it’s far away but dare to dream for a moment. Imagine a Phillies starting rotation headed by Schilling and followed by Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Adam Eaton, and Jamie Moyer. Imagine the ticker tape parade on Broad Street when the conquering hero Schilling brings home a World Series title to Philadelphia. Come home Curt, we miss you!

Sources:
Schilling ‘I will play in 2008’
By ESPN.com news services

D-Backs acquire Schilling form Phillies
By Associate Press

First picture of Curt Schilling from sportsline.com

What’s wrong with Burrell?

2007-01-29T15:52:00.000-05:00

Pat Burrell is an enigma. A player’s statistics tell the story of that player's career. Burrell’s story doesn’t track. He has all the athleticism and physical prowess to be a great ball player. In past seasons he has used those skills to put up big numbers. He has also wasted those skills throwing up some ugly stats.

Many experts have come forward with different explanations of why consistent success has eluded Burrell. Back in December former Phillies skipper Dallas Green suggested that Burrell spent too much time enjoying the rich life and that he needed to rededicate himself to baseball. Burrell has a reputation for taking pleasure in the Philadelphia nightlife. A recent Paul Hagen article suggested that the problem is that Burrell has vision problems and can’t see the ball. Burrell has led the Majors in called third strikes the past two seasons supporting the poor eyesight theory.

Both of these theories have flaws. If Burrell’s partying were affecting his performance than you would expect to see consistently bad numbers. Burrell’s yo-yo up and down, the very opposite of consistency. If Burrell had poor vision he wouldn’t score as high as he does on the Phillies mandatory vision tests. Burrell’s minor league and college stats tell us that he has the physical capacity to play MVP quality baseball. So, what’s wrong with Burrell?

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis tells the story of young player named Billy Beane. Beane had all of the “tools” that made Major League scouts salivate. Beane however never had the career as a player that was his preordained destiny. Lewis believes that Billy never had the mental makeup to be a big time player. Beane couldn't handle failure and became easily frustrated by the smallest disappointment. He couldn’t handle a game where the best players in the world, mess up seven out of ten times. There is a lot of Billy Beane in Pat Burrell.

After the departure of David Bell last season the cool Phillie to hate became Burrell. Every time he struck out, every time he couldn’t make a play in the field, boos would come down as judgment from the masses onto Burrell. Handling that kind of scrutiny is the furthest thing from easy. So, what’s wrong with Burrell? Nothing, he’s just human, a mere mortal like the rest of us.

Burrell hasn’t done a single interview this off-season. He should reverse that policy and take his critics head on. Sometimes a man needs to stand up and defend himself. Great players have a swagger and Burrell needs to get his back in the worst way.

Sources:
More suggestions for Burrell
By Paul Hagen / Philadelphia Inquirer

Green challenges Burrell
By Jim Salisbury / Philadelphia Inquirer

First picture of Pat Burrell from about.com, second picture of Pat Burrell from comcastsportsnet.com