Why is Wes Helms Still a Phillie?

As I watched Wes Helms take the field after replacing Ryan Howard, I had a flash back to January when the Phllies signed Pedro Feliz. At the time I thought Wes Helms will soon be traded for a bullpen arm or a couple of AA prospects. But its now March and Helms remains a Phillie.

The signing of Feliz appears to have served as motivation for Helms who has stepped up his game this spring. In thirty at bats Helms has hit .300 with a .382 on base percentage. Despite his stellar play the Phillies don’t have room on the roster for Helms, Feliz, and Greg Dobbs. Feliz was signed to start in the hot corner. Dobbs has also had a good spring hitting .286 with a .543 slugging percentage. More importantly Dobbs is the Phillies best option as a left-handed pinch hitter. That leaves Helms out in the cold.

It has been rumored that both the Braves and Marlins have shown interest in Helms. Apparently they haven’t shown much more than interest. If the Phillies can’t move Helms he will have to be placed on waivers and another team will claim him. Unfortunately for the Phillies other GMs know this fact and are willing to wait instead of making a trade.

Breaking Down Eaton’s Spring Start

The Good:
Eaton struck out two hitters and induced seven ground ball outs. That's an excellent sign. You can't be an effective pitcher in Citizens Bank Park if you give up a lot of fly ball outs. In addition he didn't walk a single batter or give up a single run, which both qualify as good things.

The Bad:
Last year Eaton was consistently able to throw strikes early in the count allowing him to get ahead of hitters. Surprisingly he labored to retire hitters in 0-2 and 1-2 counts. Unfortunately that trend continued in this year. 4 consecutive Twins hitters found themselves down 0-2. Of those four only Chris Redmond got a hit. However, Eaton took far to many pitches to put down those hitters.

I don't know where a pitcher should be with their velocity at this point in spring training but Eaton wasn't throwing hard. Usually Eaton's fastball tops out at 92 MPH. The fastest pitch I saw him throw looked like an 84 MPH two seam fastball. That must improve if Eaton wants to win the final spot in the rotation.

The I Am Confused:
Eaton gave up five hits. However, two of those hits should have been caught. Even if I forget those two hits Eaton still gave up three hits in three innings, which isn't that great either.

One issue was that it appeared Eaton had trouble throwing his curve ball for strikes. Admittedly I sometimes can't tell the difference between a slider and a curve while watching the highly pixilated mlb.tv. But even I could tell that Eaton's accuracy wasn't always there.

In conclusion there is some evidence to support my hope that Eaton will be able to pitch effectively this season. I have always believed that if healthy Eaton could go 14-8 with a 4.35 ERA. Looking forward to the regular season I can’t help but get excite about both the Phillies and Eaton’s prospects.

The Never Ending Search for Pitching

It’s no secret that the back end of the Phillies rotation is weak. The Phillies are now about half way through spring training and no one has stepped up their game. One dark horse candidate is Francisco Rosario. When watching Rosario pitch last season I often felt like I was having a heart attack. He simply lacks the ability to consistently retire hitters.

There’s no doubt he has electric stuff. Rosario has never had trouble striking hitters out as evidenced by his stellar career strikeout rate of 8.39 K/9. The problem is that Rosario can’t control his pitches. In his career he has given up a shocking 10.58 H/9 and walked and unimaginable 5.29 BB/9. In Rosario’s first two spring starts he gave up no earned runs, but he still surrendered his fair share of hits and walks. In his third start the hits and walks came back to bite him and the Braves slammed him for six runs.

Rosario looks good on paper but he doesn’t have what it takes to be a good pitcher. Unless Rich Dubee can get Rosario straightened out Pat Gillick needs to bite the bullet and cut him.

Deep Cleansing Breathes

After I heard that Brad Lidge had reinjured his knee I had a minor meltdown. Even after hearing that the surgery was successful and that he could be back in time for opening day I couldn’t really relax. It’s nearly impossible to get well-informed and accurate information about injuries. I have a few complaints regarding the way that the mainstream media covers sports injuries. Often all we hear is what body part is out of whack and the range of how many weeks or months they will be missing. Sometimes we will get a quote from the player that is almost always so ridiculous optimistic that they sound completely crazy.

All of that explains why I was unable to not worry about Brad Lidge. But after reading this great snippet by Stephania Bell, which was completely buried by ESPN I have been able to relax. Stephania’s bio says that she is a physical therapist who is a Board Certified Orthopedic Clinical Specialist and a Certified Strength and Conditioning Specialist. In plain English someone who can actually explain what to expect from Lidge. She explains that because doctors only had to remove a small portion of the medial meniscus it is more likely that Lidge will be striking out Mets hitters with his nasty slider sooner rather than later. So finally I can relax and take a few deep cleansing breathes.

Here is the link to her article. It is sort of hidden on the right side. The main article is a pretty decent Phillies season preview. I should also mention Will Carroll who writes an excellent column about injuries called Under the Knife for Baseball Prospectus.

Lidge Out 3-6 Weeks

Phillies closer will require surgery on his knee to repair a torn meniscus. The recovery time in three to six weeks and Lidge is optimistic that he will be ready for opening day.

This whole story is very familiar. Last season the Phillies acquired a star pitcher who had a nagging injury that prevented him from pitching effectively during the season. The story of Brad Lidge appears to be mimicking last season’s drama with the infamous Freddy Garcia. Despite the Phillies history I still believe that Lidge will pitch effectively this season.

Lidge injured himself when his spike got caught in the ground, which is just plain unlucky. I can only hope that the Phillies do nothing to rush him back. He needs to be one hundred percent before the Phillies let him on the field. Anything else is just reckless.

Kyle Kendrick Video

I'm sure everyone has heard about this but I thought I'd post it anyway.

Phils take a look at Benson

The Phillies who have stated time and time again that finding pitching is still a priority. In their effort to find more starting pitching the Phillies have turned to the bargain bin and free agent Kris Benson. I’m very conflicted about Benson. He has had only two good seasons in his seven-year career. Benson’s strike out rate is trending down and his homerun rate is trending up, which suggest that he is a pitcher whose performance will decline. Even worse he missed both the 2001 and 2007 seasons due to injury.

Despite all that Benson could still provide valuable depth. The Phillies have no fifth starter, Kyle Kendrick is unproven, and Jamie Moyer is older than time itself. For all those reasons it couldn’t hurt to sign Benson and either keep him in the minors or use him as a long man in the bullpen.

Hot Corner Surprise

In an unexpected move the Phillies have reportedly signed third baseman Pedro Feliz to a two-year contract. Pat Gillick had consistently commented that they Phillies were comfortable platooning third base with Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs. With the addition of Feliz that Phillies have 3 third baseman, which is one to many. Presumably Feliz will start leaving either Dobbs or Helms as the odd man out. My guess is that one of those two will be traded for a bullpen piece sooner rather than later.

I’m hesitant to praise a signing before knowing the value of the contract but if the money is reasonable this is an exciting signing. Last season Feliz hit 20 homeruns. That’s five more than Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez, and Greg Dobbs combined. Pedro will have solid power and play adequate defense. His career .252 average and .288 OBP aren’t great but they still represent an upgrade.

The Phillies have now signed a new starting third basemen for the third straight season. I believe that Pedro Feliz will excel were Nunez and Helms failed.

Lieberthal Retires

Long time Philadelphia Phillies catcher Mike Lieberthal retired today after fourteen seasons in majors. I wasn’t sad to see Lieby depart last season to the Dodgers but looking over his career statistics has reminded me of the good times. Back in the day Lieberthal was one of the best catchers in baseball. He had several high quality seasons including two All-Star campaigns. He also won a Gold Glove in 1999, which I had totally didn't remember.

I have a lot of respect for catchers. They take more punishment than anyone on the baseball diamond and Mike was no exception. He played 1,212 games in his career and in 1,174 he suited up for the Phillies. He owns the Phillies franchise record for the games played by a catcher and also the most times being hit by a pitch. It’s hard to quantify the value of stability but there’s no doubt that the Phillies were well served by his years of consistently solid play. I wish him look in his life after baseball.

Lidge and Madson avoid arbitration

The Phillies avoided arbitration with a pair of key relievers signing Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson. Lidge who came over to the Phillies in the Houston deal and Mad Dog will make $6.35 million and $1.4 million respectively. Both are reasonable prices for quality pitchers.

Lidge is a huge pick up. I don’t buy that Albert Pujols permanently messed up Lidge in the 2005 NLCS. That explanation is a junk story for ESPN. If Lidge had psychological issues in Houston it was a product of Phil Garner changing his role in the bullpen. A closer needs to know that they are the man. A closer also needs to know that if they blow a game then they will still be the man tomorrow. Every time Lidge pitched as an Astro last season he had to worry about losing his job. That would cause even the most confident pitcher to lose his cool.

The truth is that Lidge has a blazing fastball paired with a killer slider. Last season he had 11.52 K/9 and 1.25 WHIP. That was a down year for Brad. Between his sick repertoire of pitches and the knowledge that he is the man for better or for worse, Brad Lidge will succeed in Philadelphia.

Thank God Ed Wade is Gone

This afternoon I sat on my coach watching Congress question baseball big wigs about the steroids. I was surprised to see that the House committee holding the hearings started off the day by requesting the Justice Department to investigate allegations that Miguel Tejada lied to federal agents about his use of steroids.

My first thought was to think of a good friend of mine at school (you know who you are) who is a big Astros fan. As Phillies Phans we can all commiserate with the idea of a team suddenly losing their biggest off-season acquisition. I’m thinking of Freddy Garcia.

But more than that former Phillies GM Ed Wade has already done long term damage to the Astros. He has already gutted the system trading away a ton of prospects including Josh Anderson, Troy Patton, Matt Albers, and Dennis Safate. For some reason he signed Kazuo Matsui to a 3-year contract, which is about two years more than he deserved. He traded for Jose Valverde who averages nearly 4 walks per nine innings over his career. In addition Valverde is a fly ball pitcher who is not well suited for throwing in tiny Minute Maid Park. To top it all off Miguel Tejada may be spending 2008 on trial and not fielding ground balls.

And of course old Ed traded his stud closer Brad Lidge to the Pighten Phils and got very little it return. I am so relieved that Ed Wade is no longer the Phillies GM.

Phils Ink Jason Werth

The Phillies avoided arbitration with outfielder Jayson Werth signing him to a 1.7 million dollar contract. That’s a great value for a fourth outfielder that can serve Charlie as a solid pinch hitter and defensive replacement in a late inning situation. I’m a big Jayson Werth fan. He has power, speed, and doesn’t hesitate sacrifice his body in pursuit of fly balls. What’s not to like?

I wish that the Phillies would give Werth more at bats. But that’s not going to happen. The Phillies brain trust has decided to give to the well-aged veteran Geoff Jenkins the keys to right field. The Phillies would be better off with the more athletic Jayson Werth in the lineup every day.

Roberson to the Orioles

Chris Roberson’s tenure with the Phillies came to an abrupt end when his contract was sold to Baltimore Orioles for cash considerations. Roberson once a top prospect in the Phillies farm system has fallen out of favor. Roberson had the best year of his minor league career in 2005 when he won the Paul Owens award. Unfortunately he has struggled recently hitting .266 last season for the Ottawa Senators.

The Phillies simply don’t have room for him. The Phillies already have two reserve outfielders in Jayson Werth and So Taguchi. In addition the Phillies signed free agent Chris Snelling who can come up from the minors in case of an injury.

Chris Roberson will be best remembered most for his contributions to the darkest part of the Phillies 2007 season. During a sunny afternoon against the Braves in Hotlanta, Roberson entered as a defensive replacement without sunglasses. Two catchable balls feel in front of him helping the Braves win the game. I won’t be sad to see Roberson go.

Speed Drain

In 2007 the Phillies had the best offense in the National League. The Phils had a variety of offensive weapons, none more potent than their ability to steal bases with ease. The Phightens stole 138 bases but more significantly were caught only 19 times. The Phillies pilfered bags more efficiently than any other team in the Majors. With the Phillies roster set it’s a good time to evaluate whether speed will be weapon in Charlie Manuel’s repertoire.

The Phillies have lost several key speedsters from last season’s team. Michael Bourn, Aaron Rowand, Tadihito Iguchi, and Abraham Nunez stole a combined 33 bases last season. The departing base thieves represent nearly a quarter of the Phillies stolen base total form last season. The new Phillies except for So Taguchi won’t be diving into second any time soon. In addition both Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino set career highs for stolen bases. It’s not unreasonable to expect a drop off in production. Hopefully the Phillies offense will be able to compensate for the downshift in velocity.

The Bargain Bin

One lesson the Phillies painfully learned in 2007 is that 5 starting pitchers are not enough. Besides Brett Myers and Cole Hamels the Phils rotation makes me nervous. Kyle Kendrick stuck out only 49 batters in 129 innings. Unless his strike out rate comes up everything I know about baseball says that Kendrick will have a rocky 2008. Jamie Moyer is old enough to be Kendrick’s dad. Moyer’s track record says he will pitch 200 innings for the fortieth season in a row. However, logic suggests that Moyer will eventually run out of gas and spend time on the disabled list. Presumably the fifth starter will be Adam Eaton. I think Eaton is much better than his atrocious 2007 statistics suggest. If Adam is healthy than he could be a useful piece. Unfortunately I would not be surprised if we hear the news in spring training that he will be getting season ending surgery.

That leaves Pat Gillick looking through the bargain bin searching for starting pitching. One option is Josh Towers. Yes the Josh Towers that was non-tendered by the Blue Jays. But wait, ask yourself if you were Pat Gillick and had a time machine and could go back in time and sign Carlos Silva to a cheap one-year deal would you? Because if you would then take another look at Towers. Lookout Landing has a fantastic post on the remarkable similarities between both hurlers. In terms of swinging strike percentage, home runs allowed, and ground ball rate Silva and Towers are the same pitcher. Gillick might also want to sign Towers because he drafted him when he was the general manager of the Orioles. Josh Towers might be the cure to the Phillies starting pitching woes.

Should the Phillies go after Otsuka?

As I look over the list of the free agent relievers I am puzzled. Especially given the huge contracts that middle relievers have been signing this off-season. Will someone tell me how Ron Mahay got a two year eight million dollar contract?

The Phillies have certainly improved their bullpen since the end of the 2007 season. Assuming the Phillies carry 12 pitchers they will have 7 spots for relievers. Brad Lidge will be the closer, J.C. Romero will serve as set up man, with Ryan Madson, and Tom Gordon in middle relief. If I had to guess I think the last three spots would go to Chad Durbin, Clay Condrey, and Adam Eaton. That’s a solid group but the Phillies could still improve.

There has been great speculation that the Phillies will try to sign reliever Akinori Otsuka. At first I thought Akinori Otsuka would be a great fit as a middle reliever for the Phillies. Otsuka has a microscopic 2.44 career ERA. However, looking into Otsuka it became clear why he was non-tendered by the Texas Rangers. The first issue is the problem of his health. Otsuka spent a lot of time spent on the disabled list last season. If he’s not healthy there’s no reason to sign him. The second reason for concern is his statistics. Each season he has spent in the Majors his strike out rate have gone down and his walk rates vacillated up and down. That’s not good. If healthy and if the Phillies sign him to a one-year contract for a reasonable price then it could be totally worth it.

Bench Talk

In 2007 the Phillies opening day bench consisted of Abraham Nunez, Greg Dobbs, Michael Bourn, Jayson Werth, and Rod Barajas. With the signing of So Taguchi the Phillies 2008 bench has been set. Eric Bruntlett, So Taguchi, and Chris Coste will take the place of Abraham Nunez, Michael Bourn, and Rod Barajas respectively. These three roster moves mark a huge upgrade to the Phillies bench.

Eric Bruntlett who came over in the Brad Lidge trade is a much better hitter than Abraham Nunez. Bruntlett is a strong defensive player. He has almost no power and hits for a mediocre average but can steal a few bases and will take pitches. So Taguchi is an experienced veteran. He doesn’t have as much raw talent as Michael Bourn but he is an excellent pinch hitter and won’t make any of the rookie mistakes that Bourn made last season. Chris Coste is a good baseball player and Rod Barajas is not. By my count Barajas cost the Phillies 3 wins all by himself.

A strong bench is essential ingredient for any good baseball team. It is unlikely that a baseball team will make it through a whole season without having a position player spend some time on the disabled list. It is a tremendous asset for a team to be able to plug in another player. Having strong pinch hitters and defensive replacements gives Charlie Manuel more weapons late in games.

Phillies Agree to Terms with Jenkins

In the past few seasons Charlie Manuel has chosen to platoon several positions with mixed results. In 2005 Kenny Lofton and Jason Michaels split time in center field and last season third base responsibilities were split three ways between Wes Helms, Abraham Nunez, and Greg Dobbs. To fill the void after the departure of Aaron Rowand the Phillies will move Shane Victorino to center field. The Phillies now plan to platoon right field using Geoff Jenkins against righties and use Jason Werth against lefties.

I don’t think this is a good move for the Phillies. Geoff Jenkins is the very definition of a player in decline. His on base percentage is going down and his strikeouts are going up. Jenkins will hit for a bad average and reasonable power. The Phillies don’t need another left handed hitter like Jenkins who can’t get on base. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are both switch hitters. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Greg Dobbs are all left-handed. Geoff Jenkins isn’t anything special.

I’m a big believer in Jason Werth. Werth can hit for power, steal some bases, and unlike Jenkins will take pitches. In addition he has good defensive range and has a strong arm. The Orioles originally drafted Werth in the first round but he had his career derailed by injuries. The Phillies should give him an opportunity to play. When Victorino went on the disabled list Jason Werth stepped in and played very well. Why not let him play?

Don’t sign Rowand

I have come out of my long period of blogging hibernation to send a simple message to Pat Gillick. Bringing back Aaron Rowand would be a terrible mistake. Don’t get me wrong I am a huge fan of Rowand. After “The Catch” how could you not be?

However, I have a few points to make. First Rowand’s last season was a classic career year for a player in the final year of his contract. According to reports Rowand who is 30 wants at least a five-year deal. 30 years of age is about the time a player’s production starts to decline. I don’t believe Rowand will experience a precipitous drop in his offensive output next season. But, my baseball intuition tells me by the end of his contract Rowand will be a huge burden. I’m thinking of Pat Burrell here.

In addition there is reason to believe that Rowand’s golden glove may turn to wood. I can practically hear Phillie Phans yelling at their screens but stay with me for a second. In years past Rowand has played a first rate center field and he certainly deserved his first Gold Glove award. Despite his record of stellar play, age again dictates the end of the status quo for Rowand. Aaron has never had a good arm or good speed. His success as a center fielder is a product of his ability to read balls with ease and his willingness to sacrifice his body. At 34 and 35 Rowand’s average speed will have become sub-par and his lack of arm strength will be become woefully obvious.

Finally the Phillies led the league in runs by a large margin the past two seasons. Therefore they can afford a slight decrease in their offensive stats that would accompany the departure of Rowand. It would also give Pat Gillick the flexibility to bring in another quality starter.

Source:
Picture from 6abc.com

2007 NL East Champions

After 13 years of frustration the Phillies will return to the playoffs. The Phillies are the 2007 National League East Division Champions. I would also like to take the time to thank the Mets for showing their true colors and falling apart. Congratulations to the Phils.