Breaking down the NL East: Washington Nationals

Position Players:
The Nationals will have a terrible offense and that’s a compliment. Ryan Zimmerman is a first class third basemen and also the only quality bat on the team. Besides Zimmerman the Nats have average players Austin Kearns, Felipe Lopez, and a cast of rejects. The Nationals don’t have enough speed, power, or average in a ballpark that suppresses offense in the first place.

Starting Rotation:
The Nationals may have the worst rotation in baseball. There only good starter is John Patterson who when healthy is a solid number two starter. The Nationals number two starter is Shawn Hill a decent minor league pitcher whose upside is a 4.30 ERA. After Hill the Nationals will field expired prospects and defunct veterans not even worth mentioning. All you need to know is they stink at pitching.

Bullpen:
If the Nationals ever get the lead in a game, they will have a solid bullpen to lock that win down. Chad Cordero owns the ninth inning as the Nationals closer. John Rauch and Ray will be solid contributors. Overall the Nats have a solid group of relievers.

Prediction:
The Nationals will lose many many baseball games. This could be a one hundred plus loss team. If I had to choose a number of wins I'd go with 52 but that number could be smaller.

Sources:
Picture of Ryan Zimmerman from ESPN.com

Breaking down the NL East: New York Mets

Position Players:
On paper the Mets have the best offense in the National League. The Mets added more firepower to a team that scored 834 runs last season by signing veteran bat Moises Alou in right field. Jose Reyes and David Wright are young super stars that will only get better with age. Carlos Delgado and Beltran will knock in 100 runs each. Complimenting that solid core are productive veterans Jose Valentin, Shawn Green, and Paul Lo Duca. The Mets should have a first class offense and will be tough to out slug.

Starting Rotation:
The Mets rotation is made of youngsters and old men. Well-aged Tom Glavine and the ancient Orlando Hernandez are the Mets only proven starters. Glavine is a future Hall of Famer and will most likely turn in another quality season. El Duque on the other hand is an average pitcher in addition to being a huge injury risk. The last three rotation spots will be filled either by past their prime vets like Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele or unproven talents like Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey, and John Maine. Pedro Martinez will come to the rescue in July. But that will probably be too late to save the Mets.

Bullpen:
The Mets bullpen recently suffered a big blow when it was announced that Duaner Sanchez will miss 3-4 months after he gets a surgery needed to repair a hairline fracture near his right shoulder. To compound the Mets bullpen woes Guillermo Mota will have to serve a 50 game suspension for violating the MLBs steroid policy. Besides those problems the Mets have a strong pen anchored by closer and former Phillie Billy Wagner. Aaron Heilman will serve as the setup man and Pedro Feliciano, Dave Williams, Scott Schoenweiss, and Ambiorix Burgos will pitch in the middle innings. Even after you count the losses of Sanchez and Mota the Mets still have a very strong bullpen.

Prediction:
Winning teams have good starting rotations. The Mets starting will falter and the extra pressure on the bullpen will cause it to break down. The Mets will win games by putting up a lot of runs. However, that won’t be enough to win the division for a second consecutive year. The Mets will finish third in the division with 81 wins.

Sources:
Picture of Jose Reyes from MLB.com

Breaking down the NL East: Florida Marlins

This is the second in a series of posts reviewing the off seasons of the Phillies NL East rivals. This post examines the Florida Marlins chances for success in 2007.

Position Player:
The Marlins have the same excellent infield as last season. Miguel Cabrera is one of the best young players in the game and Hanley Ramirez should be a first rate shortstop. Dan Uggla over preformed last season. His minor league numbers suggest that he should hit 20 dingers but with a lower average. Catcher Miguel Olivo should provide a pedestrian average and chip in a dozen or so homers. The Marlins outfield is peppered with inexperienced and injured players. Jeremy Hermida has the pedigree but has yet to prove himself. Alex Sanchez has never played a full season. Josh Willingham should throw in twenty bombs and 90 RBIs. Last season the Florida Marlins scored 758 runs ranking them eighth in the National League. They only scored that many runs because everything went right. Probability demands that the same thing won’t happen again.

Starting Rotation:
Marlins ace Dontrelle Willis anchors the starting rotation. The rest of the Marlins rotation is green. Young pitchers will struggle. It’s baseball law. Scott Olsen, Annibal Sanchez, and Josh Johnson all have great stuff. However, they will take their lumps like everyone else. Due to their inexperience the Marlins rotation is a huge liability.

Bullpen:
The worst part of this team is the bullpen. There is no clear closer, set up man, or even a quality middle reliever. I don’t like to repeat myself but I can’t say it enough. The Marlins young pitchers will struggle. Who would have thought the Fish would miss Joe Borowski?

Prediction:
The Marlins overachieved as a team last season and made no significant moves to improve their roster. On top of all that the Marlins management thought that it would be a good idea to fire 2006 NL manager of the year Joe Girardi. The Marlins could easily lose 100 games in 2007. It’s a tribute to how terrible the Nationals will be that the Florida should finish fourth in the division.

Source:
Picture of Dontrelle Willis from the thediamondangle.com

Breaking down the NL East: Atlanta Braves

This will be the first in a series of articles reviewing the off seasons of the Phillies National League East rivals. The first team up is the Atlanta Braves. This off-season Bravos GM John Schuerholz had another active winter in an effort to start another streak of division titles.

Position Players:
Edgar Renteria and Chipper Jones will anchor the left side of the Braves infield and bat second and third respectively. Behind the backstop, Brian McCann will call the balls and strikes. First and second base are a bit of a question mark. After the departure of Marcus Giles and Adam LaRoche the Braves are left with prospects Martin Prado and Scott Thorman. In the outfield Andruw Jones will patrol center centerfield with Jeff Francoeur playing in right. The Braves will platoon Ryan Langerhans and Craig Wilson in left field. The Braves should have a good defense between Renteria, Francoeur, and the Jones’s. Andruw Jones who is in a contract year looks poised to have another monster season. It also seems unlikely that Jeff Francoeur can have another good season if he keeps striking out at such a high rate. The strength of the Braves offense will depend on the success of rookies Prado and Thorman.

Starting Rotation:
After the always-dependable John Smoltz, the Braves have a few question marks in their rotation. Mike Hampton will look to bounce back from injury plagued last season. Tim Hudson will also look to rebound from pitching really poorly. The Braves will also look for Chuck James to continue his development and hope Kyle Davies can live up to his potential. The starting rotation is the weak link in the Braves chain.

Bullpen:
The Braves bullpen was pathetic last season. This year it should be much improved. Veteran Bob Wickman will close out games. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez who both arrived in trades this off-season, will serve in late inning roles for the Bravos.

Prediction:
In 2007 Atlanta will go as their starting pitchers and young players go. If Hampton, Hudson, and James pitch well and their youngsters play okay, then the Braves will be in competition for another NL East title. The Phans Blog official prediction is that the Atlanta Braves will finish second in the NL East with 86 wins.

Sources:
Picture of Andruw Jones from decaturdaily.com